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Kinsale Capital (KNSL) to Post Q3 Earnings: What to Expect
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Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL - Free Report) is set to report its third-quarter 2023 earnings on Oct 26, after the closing bell. The insurer beat the consensus estimate for earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 14.88%.
Factors to Consider
The top line of Kinsale Capital is expected to have benefited from higher net premiums earned, which is the primary contributor to its revenues, fee income, net investment income and other income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues of $319 million indicates a 47.1% increase from the year-ago reported figure.
Premiums are expected to have benefited from higher submission activity from brokers and higher rates across most lines of business, resulting from continued favorable conditions in the E&S market in the to-be-reported quarter. Our estimate for the net earned premiums of KNSL is pegged at $272.7 million, indicating a 30.3% year-over-year increase.
Meanwhile, net investment income is likely to have been favored by the growth in investment portfolio generated from the investment of strong operating cash flows and higher interest rates. Our estimate for net investment income is pinned at $21.5 million, implying a rise of 55.1% from the year-ago reported figure.
The hard insurance market with rising premium rates and improving Inland Marine, energy, general casualty and entertainment divisions are likely to have driven Kinsale Capital’s revenue growth. KNSL’s disciplined underwriting, pricing and sustained record of profitability are likely to have aided its third-quarter performance.
However, KNSL’s profits are likely to have suffered a setback due to escalating costs. Higher losses and loss adjustment expenses, underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses, interest expense and other expenses may have impacted the bottom line negatively in the third quarter. Our estimate for the metric is pegged at $235.7 million for the third quarter of 2023.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share of $2.93 suggests a 78.6% increase from the prior-year quarter’s figure of $1.64.
What the Zacks Model Says
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Kinsale Capital this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, this is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of -0.39%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.92 is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.93. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
ACGL earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.00% and a Zacks Rank of 1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $1.07, indicating an increase of 46.58% from the year-ago reported figure.
CINF’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one.
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.40% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $2.47, indicating a year-over-year increase of 10.2%.
AFG’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one.
Image: Bigstock
Kinsale Capital (KNSL) to Post Q3 Earnings: What to Expect
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL - Free Report) is set to report its third-quarter 2023 earnings on Oct 26, after the closing bell. The insurer beat the consensus estimate for earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 14.88%.
Factors to Consider
The top line of Kinsale Capital is expected to have benefited from higher net premiums earned, which is the primary contributor to its revenues, fee income, net investment income and other income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues of $319 million indicates a 47.1% increase from the year-ago reported figure.
Premiums are expected to have benefited from higher submission activity from brokers and higher rates across most lines of business, resulting from continued favorable conditions in the E&S market in the to-be-reported quarter. Our estimate for the net earned premiums of KNSL is pegged at $272.7 million, indicating a 30.3% year-over-year increase.
Meanwhile, net investment income is likely to have been favored by the growth in investment portfolio generated from the investment of strong operating cash flows and higher interest rates. Our estimate for net investment income is pinned at $21.5 million, implying a rise of 55.1% from the year-ago reported figure.
The hard insurance market with rising premium rates and improving Inland Marine, energy, general casualty and entertainment divisions are likely to have driven Kinsale Capital’s revenue growth. KNSL’s disciplined underwriting, pricing and sustained record of profitability are likely to have aided its third-quarter performance.
However, KNSL’s profits are likely to have suffered a setback due to escalating costs. Higher losses and loss adjustment expenses, underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses, interest expense and other expenses may have impacted the bottom line negatively in the third quarter. Our estimate for the metric is pegged at $235.7 million for the third quarter of 2023.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share of $2.93 suggests a 78.6% increase from the prior-year quarter’s figure of $1.64.
What the Zacks Model Says
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Kinsale Capital this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, this is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of -0.39%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.92 is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.93. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. Quote
Zacks Rank: Kinsale Capital currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.
Stocks to Consider
Some insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.37% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $1.48, indicating a year-over-year increase of 428.5%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
ACGL earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.00% and a Zacks Rank of 1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $1.07, indicating an increase of 46.58% from the year-ago reported figure.
CINF’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one.
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.40% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $2.47, indicating a year-over-year increase of 10.2%.
AFG’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.