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Growth in AUM Likely to Support Ameriprise (AMP) in Q3 Earnings

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Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2023 results on Oct 25, after market close. Its revenues and earnings in the to-be-reported quarter are anticipated to have increased on a year-over-year basis.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results were aided by growth in revenues, along with higher assets under management (AUM) and assets under administration (AUA) balances. However, an increase in expenses was a negative.

Ameriprise has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 5.9%.

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Quote

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s third-quarter earnings is pegged at $7.58 per share, which indicates a rise of 17.9% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. The consensus estimate has been unchanged over the past seven days. Our estimate for earnings is pinned at $7.29.

The consensus estimate for total sales is pegged at $3.96 billion, which indicates an 11.8% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. Our estimate for the same is $4.08 billion.

Estimates & Key Factors to Note for Q3

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for management and financial advice fees (constituting more than 60% of the company’s total net revenues) is pegged at $2.31 billion, which suggests a 6.1% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. Our estimate for the same is $2.35 billion.

The consensus estimate for distribution fees of $596 million indicates a year-over-year rise of 17.8%. Our estimate for the same is $566.2 million, suggesting a year-over-year improvement of 11.9%. The consensus estimate for premiums, policy and contract charges is pegged at $386 million, indicating a year-over-year rise of 6.9%. Our estimate for the same is $396.5 million.

The consensus estimate for net investment income of $726 million suggests a significant year-over-year increase. Our estimate for the same is pinned at $629.9 million. The consensus mark for other revenues of $130 million indicates a 10.2% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. Our estimate for the same is $138.4 million, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 17.2%.

Based on the expectations of improved advisor productivity, the Advice & Wealth Management segment is expected to have recorded growth in assets in the third quarter.

Moreover, supported by overall asset inflows, the total AUM balance is likely to have increased. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total AUM and AUA is pegged at $1.28 trillion, indicating an increase of 15.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. Our estimate for the metric is also $1.28 trillion.

While Ameriprise’s initiatives to focus on cost management have resulted in controlled general and administration expenses in the past, overall costs are anticipated to have been elevated in the to-be-reported quarter due to costs related to technology upgrades. Our estimate for total expenses is pegged at $2.94 billion, indicating a rise of 4.7% from the prior-year quarter’s actual.

Earnings Whispers

According to our quantitative model, the chances of Ameriprise beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate this time are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better — which is required to be confident of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Ameriprise has an Earnings ESP of -0.92%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks to Consider

A couple of finance stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time, are Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB - Free Report) and First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA - Free Report) .

The Earnings ESP for Prosperity Bancshares is +1.50% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. PB is slated to report third-quarter 2023 results on Oct 25.

First Citizens is scheduled to release earnings on Oct 26. FCNCA, which carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present, has an Earnings ESP of +3.85%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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