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Amgen (AMGN) to Report Q3 Earnings: Will It Beat Estimates?
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We expect Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports third-quarter 2023 results on Oct 31, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 12.61%.
Factors to Consider
Amgen’s product sales are expected to have been driven by strong volume growth of products like, Evenity, Repatha and Prolia, among others. However, prices of most products are expected to have declined.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prolia, Repatha, and Evenity sales are pegged at $974 million, $406 million and $284.0 million, respectively.
Our estimates for Prolia, Repatha and Evenity sales are pegged at $992.0 million, $400.3 million and $288.7 million, respectively.
In addition, higher volumes of newer drugs like Tezspire and Tavneos are expected to have contributed to top-line growth. Like the second quarter, Tezspire volumes are likely to have benefited from the launch of a self-administered, pre-filled, single-use pen formulation of the drug in the third quarter, improving patient convenience and accessibility and also providing more flexibility in treatment options
However, lower revenues from oncology biosimilars (Kanjinti and Mvasi) and legacy established products and lower COVID-19 antibody revenues are expected to have hurt the top line. In addition, like the first half of 2023, sales of Otezla in the United States are expected to have been hurt by free drug programs launched by new competitors. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Otezla is $640.0 million, while our estimate is $620.0 million.
Improved payer coverage led to an increase in new patients, which led to better volume growth for Enbrel in the second quarter. The positive trend is expected to have continued in the third quarter. However, lower pricing is likely to have hurt sales of this legacy established product. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Enbrel is $1017.0 million, while our estimate is $1017.7 million.
Overall, third-quarter revenues and adjusted earnings are expected to have been lower than the second quarter due to the impact of the Medicare donut hole, which is more pronounced in the second half of the year, and also due to certain favorable changes to estimated sales deductions in the second quarter.
In August, Amgen and Horizon Therapeutics resolved the pending Federal Trade Commission administrative lawsuit. This cleared Amgen’s path to acquire Horizon for $28 billion. The acquisition closed on Oct 6.
Earnings Surprise History
This large biotech’s performance has been strong, with earnings beating estimates in all the trailing four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.90%, on average.
Amgen’s stock is up 5.1% so far this year against a decrease of 22.4% for the industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Amgen in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Amgen’s Earnings ESP is +0.63% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $4.64 is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.61. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
AstraZeneca’s stock has declined 4.5% so far this year. AstraZeneca beat earnings estimates in the last four quarters. AZN has a four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 8.38%, on average. AstraZeneca is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Nov 9.
Biogen (BIIB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.89% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Biogen’s stock has declined 8.9% year to date. Biogen topped earnings estimates in the last four quarters. BIIB has a four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 10.53%, on average. BIIB is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Nov 8.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.25% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Vertex’s stock is up 27.9% so far this year. The company beat earnings estimates in the last four quarters. VRTX has a four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 4.91%, on average. VRTX is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Nov 6.
Image: Shutterstock
Amgen (AMGN) to Report Q3 Earnings: Will It Beat Estimates?
We expect Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports third-quarter 2023 results on Oct 31, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 12.61%.
Factors to Consider
Amgen’s product sales are expected to have been driven by strong volume growth of products like, Evenity, Repatha and Prolia, among others. However, prices of most products are expected to have declined.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prolia, Repatha, and Evenity sales are pegged at $974 million, $406 million and $284.0 million, respectively.
Our estimates for Prolia, Repatha and Evenity sales are pegged at $992.0 million, $400.3 million and $288.7 million, respectively.
In addition, higher volumes of newer drugs like Tezspire and Tavneos are expected to have contributed to top-line growth. Like the second quarter, Tezspire volumes are likely to have benefited from the launch of a self-administered, pre-filled, single-use pen formulation of the drug in the third quarter, improving patient convenience and accessibility and also providing more flexibility in treatment options
However, lower revenues from oncology biosimilars (Kanjinti and Mvasi) and legacy established products and lower COVID-19 antibody revenues are expected to have hurt the top line. In addition, like the first half of 2023, sales of Otezla in the United States are expected to have been hurt by free drug programs launched by new competitors. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Otezla is $640.0 million, while our estimate is $620.0 million.
Improved payer coverage led to an increase in new patients, which led to better volume growth for Enbrel in the second quarter. The positive trend is expected to have continued in the third quarter. However, lower pricing is likely to have hurt sales of this legacy established product. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Enbrel is $1017.0 million, while our estimate is $1017.7 million.
Overall, third-quarter revenues and adjusted earnings are expected to have been lower than the second quarter due to the impact of the Medicare donut hole, which is more pronounced in the second half of the year, and also due to certain favorable changes to estimated sales deductions in the second quarter.
In August, Amgen and Horizon Therapeutics resolved the pending Federal Trade Commission administrative lawsuit. This cleared Amgen’s path to acquire Horizon for $28 billion. The acquisition closed on Oct 6.
Earnings Surprise History
This large biotech’s performance has been strong, with earnings beating estimates in all the trailing four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.90%, on average.
Amgen’s stock is up 5.1% so far this year against a decrease of 22.4% for the industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Amgen in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Amgen’s Earnings ESP is +0.63% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $4.64 is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.61. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Amgen has a Zacks Rank #3.
Amgen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Amgen Inc. price-eps-surprise | Amgen Inc. Quote
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some large drug/biotech stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.13% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
AstraZeneca’s stock has declined 4.5% so far this year. AstraZeneca beat earnings estimates in the last four quarters. AZN has a four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 8.38%, on average. AstraZeneca is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Nov 9.
Biogen (BIIB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.89% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Biogen’s stock has declined 8.9% year to date. Biogen topped earnings estimates in the last four quarters. BIIB has a four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 10.53%, on average. BIIB is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Nov 8.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.25% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Vertex’s stock is up 27.9% so far this year. The company beat earnings estimates in the last four quarters. VRTX has a four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 4.91%, on average. VRTX is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Nov 6.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.