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Is a Beat in Store for Medical Properties (MPW) in Q3 Earnings?

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Medical Properties Trust, Inc.  (MPW - Free Report) — also known as MPT — is scheduled to report third-quarter 2023 results on Oct 26, before the opening bell. The company’s quarterly results are expected to reflect a year-over-year decline in revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share.

In the last reported quarter, this real estate investment trust (REIT), which acquires and develops net-leased hospital facilities, posted normalized FFO per share of 48 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 26.32%.

Over the trailing four quarters, MPT beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate on one occasion and met the same in the remaining three, with the average being 6.58%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Factors at Play

Medical Properties owns a premium acute care portfolio, which is likely to have benefited from the favorable operating trends of the healthcare industry on the back of an aging population, growing consumer demand and expanded medical service offerings. Its reliable, sustainable and inflation-protected cash-based business model is expected to have supported decent cashflow generation during the third quarter.  

Also, MPW’s portfolio diversification efforts with respect to the operator and gains from past accretive acquisitions are likely to have driven its quarterly performance.  

Further, the adoption of a disciplined capital allocation strategy aimed at fortifying its balance sheet strength, lowering the cost of capital and aiding long-term shareholder value creation are likely to have given MPW an edge.

Nonetheless, a rise in interest expenses amid a high interest rate environment and exposure to certain troubled operators are anticipated to have cast a pall on the company’s quarterly performance to some extent.

Q3 Projections

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter rent billed is pegged at $248.5 million, suggesting an increase from the prior quarter’s $247.5 million and the year-ago period’s $232.4 million.

Straight-line rent is estimated at $55.3 million, up from $39.3 million reported in the prior quarter and $26.6 million in the year-ago period.  

The consensus estimate for income from financing leases stands at $11.66 million, suggesting a decline from $51.01 million reported in the year-ago quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $346.5 million, implying a 1.7% fall from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

Medical Properties’ activities during the to-be-reported quarter were inadequate to garner analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly FFO per share has been revised 2.8% downward to 35 cents over the past month. Also, the figure implies a year-over-year fall of 22.2%.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model predicts a surprise in terms of FFO per share for Medical Properties this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher — increases the odds of a beat. That is just the case here.

Earnings ESP: MPW has an Earnings ESP of +2.86%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: MPW currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Other Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some stocks that are worth considering from the REIT sector, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to deliver a surprise this reporting cycle:

Digital Realty Trust (DLR - Free Report) is scheduled to report quarterly figures on Oct 26. DLR has an Earnings ESP of +2.40% and a Zacks Rank #3 currently.

American Tower (AMT - Free Report) is slated to report quarterly numbers on Oct 26. AMT has an Earnings ESP of +0.59% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 presently.

SBA Communications (SBAC - Free Report) is slated to report quarterly numbers on Nov 2. SBAC has an Earnings ESP of +0.27% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 presently.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.

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