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Moderna (MRNA) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
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Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) will report third-quarter 2023 results on Nov 2, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, the company reported an earnings surprise of 5.73%.
Factors to Note
During the third quarter, sales of COVID-19 vaccines are likely to have declined significantly due to lower demand. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for third-quarter product sales is pegged at $1.31 billion and $1.34 billion, respectively.
Due to the substantial fall in COVID-19 vaccine sales compared with previous quarters’ levels, we expect Moderna to post a quarterly loss in the to-be-reported quarter. Management is also expected to provide an update on vaccination trends for COVID-19 in the ongoing fall season during the third-quarter earnings conference call.
In July, Moderna initiated regulatory submissions for its mRNA-based RSV vaccine, mRNA-1345, for use in older adults (aged 60 years and above) in several markets, including the United States, Europe and Australia. We expect mRNA-1345 to be the company’s next major commercial launch following its blockbuster COVID-19 vaccine. Investors could expect management to discuss the commercial rollout plan for mRNA-1345 during the earnings conference call.
Investors would also be inclined about Moderna’s progress with its pipeline. The company is developing more than 30 mRNA-based investigational candidates in different stages of clinical studies, targeting various indications, including cancer. Moderna is evaluating multiple candidates in late-stage studies — mRNA-1647 [cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine], mRNA-1010 (influenza vaccine), mRNA-4157/V940 [individualized neoantigen therapy (INT)] and mRNA-1083 (COVID-19 plus influenza combination vaccine).
Last month, Moderna reported encouraging data from a phase III immunogenicity study (P303) and a separate phase I/II head-to-head study evaluating an enhanced formulation of its influenza vaccine mRNA-1010. Participants treated with mRNA-1010 elicited higher immune responses across all four A and B strains of influenza compared to the vaccines marketed by GSK and Sanofi. Given the company’s timetable, we expect a regulatory filing shortly.
During the third quarter, Moderna and partner Merck (MRK - Free Report) initiated the phase III study on mRNA-4157 in melanoma patients. This initiation was based on data from a phase IIb study, which showed that mRNA-4157, combined with Merck’s Keytruda, achieved its primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival and also reduced the risk of distant metastasis or death when compared with those treated with Merck’s Keytruda alone. Over time, Moderna/Merck intend to expand mRNA-4157 in other oncology indications, including lung cancer.
Moderna also generates collaboration revenues from partners who use its mRNA technology to develop therapies targeting different indications. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for third-quarter collaboration revenues are pegged at $13.9 million and $10.0 million, respectively.
Earnings Surprise History
The company’s surprise history has been mixed, with earnings beating estimates in two of the trailing four quarters while missing on the other two occasions. The average surprise is 19.29%.
Moderna’s shares have declined 55.6% year to date compared with the industry’s fall of 22.4%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Moderna in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is not the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Moderna’s Earnings ESP is -51.64% as the Most Accurate Estimate of a loss of $2.73 is wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.80. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Here are some large-cap biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Amgen’s stock has risen 5.1% year to date. AMGN beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters, delivering an earnings surprise of 5.90%, on average. Amgen is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Oct 31, before market open.
AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.13% and a Zacks Rank #3.
AstraZeneca’s stock has lost 4.8% year to date. AZN beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters, witnessing an average earnings surprise of 8.38%. AstraZeneca is scheduled to release its Q3 results on Nov 9.
Image: Bigstock
Moderna (MRNA) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) will report third-quarter 2023 results on Nov 2, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, the company reported an earnings surprise of 5.73%.
Factors to Note
During the third quarter, sales of COVID-19 vaccines are likely to have declined significantly due to lower demand. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for third-quarter product sales is pegged at $1.31 billion and $1.34 billion, respectively.
Due to the substantial fall in COVID-19 vaccine sales compared with previous quarters’ levels, we expect Moderna to post a quarterly loss in the to-be-reported quarter. Management is also expected to provide an update on vaccination trends for COVID-19 in the ongoing fall season during the third-quarter earnings conference call.
In July, Moderna initiated regulatory submissions for its mRNA-based RSV vaccine, mRNA-1345, for use in older adults (aged 60 years and above) in several markets, including the United States, Europe and Australia. We expect mRNA-1345 to be the company’s next major commercial launch following its blockbuster COVID-19 vaccine. Investors could expect management to discuss the commercial rollout plan for mRNA-1345 during the earnings conference call.
Investors would also be inclined about Moderna’s progress with its pipeline. The company is developing more than 30 mRNA-based investigational candidates in different stages of clinical studies, targeting various indications, including cancer. Moderna is evaluating multiple candidates in late-stage studies — mRNA-1647 [cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine], mRNA-1010 (influenza vaccine), mRNA-4157/V940 [individualized neoantigen therapy (INT)] and mRNA-1083 (COVID-19 plus influenza combination vaccine).
Last month, Moderna reported encouraging data from a phase III immunogenicity study (P303) and a separate phase I/II head-to-head study evaluating an enhanced formulation of its influenza vaccine mRNA-1010. Participants treated with mRNA-1010 elicited higher immune responses across all four A and B strains of influenza compared to the vaccines marketed by GSK and Sanofi. Given the company’s timetable, we expect a regulatory filing shortly.
During the third quarter, Moderna and partner Merck (MRK - Free Report) initiated the phase III study on mRNA-4157 in melanoma patients. This initiation was based on data from a phase IIb study, which showed that mRNA-4157, combined with Merck’s Keytruda, achieved its primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival and also reduced the risk of distant metastasis or death when compared with those treated with Merck’s Keytruda alone. Over time, Moderna/Merck intend to expand mRNA-4157 in other oncology indications, including lung cancer.
Moderna also generates collaboration revenues from partners who use its mRNA technology to develop therapies targeting different indications. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for third-quarter collaboration revenues are pegged at $13.9 million and $10.0 million, respectively.
Earnings Surprise History
The company’s surprise history has been mixed, with earnings beating estimates in two of the trailing four quarters while missing on the other two occasions. The average surprise is 19.29%.
Moderna, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Moderna, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Moderna, Inc. Quote
Moderna’s shares have declined 55.6% year to date compared with the industry’s fall of 22.4%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Moderna in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is not the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Moderna’s Earnings ESP is -51.64% as the Most Accurate Estimate of a loss of $2.73 is wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.80. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Moderna has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some large-cap biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Amgen’s stock has risen 5.1% year to date. AMGN beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters, delivering an earnings surprise of 5.90%, on average. Amgen is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Oct 31, before market open.
AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.13% and a Zacks Rank #3.
AstraZeneca’s stock has lost 4.8% year to date. AZN beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters, witnessing an average earnings surprise of 8.38%. AstraZeneca is scheduled to release its Q3 results on Nov 9.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.