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Amcor (AMCR) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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Amcor Plc (AMCR - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter fiscal 2024 results on Oct 31 after the closing bell.

Q1 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal first-quarter revenues is pegged at $3.35 billion, indicating a decline of 9.9% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for quarterly earnings currently stands at 14 cents per share, which suggests a 22.2% plunge from the prior-year quarter’s actual. The estimate has been unchanged over the past 30 days.

Amcor PLC Price and EPS Surprise

 

Amcor PLC Price and EPS Surprise

Amcor PLC price-eps-surprise | Amcor PLC Quote

Q4 Results

Amcor witnessed year-over-year declines in fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 revenues and earnings. While earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate, revenues missed the same. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.5%, on average.

Volumes to Play Spoilsport in Q1

Amcor’s total volume growth has been in the negative territory since the first quarter of fiscal 2023 , reflecting weak market demand. This is mainly due to the current inflationary pressures that have been weighing on consumer spending, which, in turn, has affected packaging demand. Customers have been trying to lower their elevated inventories, which has also weighed on volumes.

Our model projects a 9.6% decline in overall volumes for the first quarter of fiscal 2024, factoring in inventory destocking at customers’ end, as well as low demand. It is expected to be offset by the price/mix benefits of 0.6% for the quarter.

In addition to weak demand in fiscal 2023, Amcor has been facing intermittent supply shortages and price volatility of certain resins and raw materials because of market dynamics and higher rates of inflation impacting other costs. This is expected to get reflected in the company’s fiscal first-quarter earnings margin results.

Segmental Projections

The Flexibles segment reported volume declines in the last four quarters,  impacted by overall weak demand and customer destocking. Volumes in priority pet care and healthcare end markets have shown resilience. However, these gains were offset by lower volumes in categories, including condiments, meat and ready meals. These are likely to have continued in the quarter under review.

Our model projects a 9.7% decline in the segment’s overall volumes in the to-be-reported quarter. The price/mix is expected to be a favorable 0.7%. Our sales projection for the Flexibles segment is pegged at $2,563 million, indicating a 7.8% year-over-year decline.

The Rigid Packaging segment has also been impacted by the unfavorable conditions mentioned above. Our model projects a 9.5% drop in volumes for the segment and a price/mix gain of 0.5%. The sales projection for the segment is at $861 million, indicating a 7.8% year-over-year dip.

However, brand extensions and the introduction of health and wellness-oriented products in PET containers have been supporting growth.

What the Zacks Model Indicates

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Amcor this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Amcor is 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: Amcor currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Price Performance

Over the past year, shares of Amcor have declined 21.2% compared with the industry’s 3.9% drop.

 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks with the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

H&E Equipment Services, Inc. (HEES - Free Report) , expected to release earnings on Oct 26, has an Earnings ESP of +14.79% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HEES’ earnings for the third quarter is pegged at $1.31 per share. The consensus estimate for 2023 earnings has moved 8% north in the past 60 days. It has an average trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 24.1%.

ESAB Corporation (ESAB - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Nov 1, has an Earnings ESP of +1.09% and sports a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ESAB’s third-quarter earnings is pegged at 92 cents per share. Earnings estimates have been unchanged in the past 60 days. It has an average trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 13.6%.

Ingersoll Rand Inc. (IR - Free Report) , expected to release earnings on Nov 1, has an Earnings ESP of +0.36%. IR currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

The consensus estimate for Ingersoll Rand’s earnings for the third quarter is pegged at 70 cents per share. Earnings estimates have been unchanged in the past 60 days. It has an average trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 14.9%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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