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This being Thursday morning, we’d likely be seeing new Weekly Jobless Claims figures, even if it weren’t “Jobs Week.” And even though it is, we still do: Initial Jobless Claims climbed to 217K last week, higher than the upwardly revised 212K the previous week. For Continuing Claims, we’re back above 1.8 million for the first time since April: 1.818 million, up from the downwardly revised 1.783 million the previous week.
Even though these numbers are up from early-September lows, they do not change the overview of the U.S. labor market, which remains healthy. Yesterday’s private-sector payroll report from ADP (ADP - Free Report) was lower than expected and month over month, but still easily gained more than the number of retiring workers domestically. Plus, JOLTS figures for September actually raised to 9.6 million from 9.4 million the previous month, though this report is a month in arrears from other employment data.
Tomorrow brings us nonfarm payrolls from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and a new Household Survey, together which make up the monthly Employment Situation. Expectations are for job gains to come in roughly half where they did a month ago, +170K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain 3.8%, with year-over-year hourly wages predicted to tick down from last month’s print to +4.0%. These are all numbers the Fed can live with after opting not to raise interest rates yesterday.
Q3 Productivity came in this morning hotter than expected: +4.7% versus +4.3% that analysts had been anticipating, and the +3.5% reported for the previous month. Though this is a preliminary headline — subject to often sizable revisions over time — it still represents the strongest quarter of productivity in three years.
The associated Q3 Unit Labor Costs, on the other hand, came down: -0.8% versus expectations of +0.7% and the previous month’s +2.2% — more good news for the Fed, who wants to see productivity rise but not wages along with it. We’ll net more color on this tomorrow when October hourly wages hit the tape.
Starbucks (SBUX - Free Report) reported fiscal Q4 earnings this morning, beating expectations on both top and bottom lines: earnings of $1.06 per share notched a +9.28% positive surprise over the 97 cents expected — and much higher than the 81 cents per share reported a year ago. Revenues also topped the Zacks consensus by +1.62% to $9.37 billion in the quarter. Global same-store sales ratcheted higher than expected, with China putting up a game +5%. Shares have crossed back into positive territory on the report, up +12% so far in today’s pre-market.
Crox (CROX - Free Report) , on the other hand, even though it also outpaced expectations on both top and bottom lines, is sinking in pre-market trading to the tune of -13%, further pulling shares into negative territory year to date. Full-year earnings guidance, instead of raising with one quarter remaining following and earnings beat, came down to a range of $11.55-11.85 per share. The Zacks consensus had been for $12.10 per share.
Overall, however, pre-market trading likes what it sees quite a bit. Much of what we see up on major indices this morning came after much of this economic data was reported: the Dow went from +150 points before to +220 after, the S&P 500 from +25 to +35, and the Nasdaq from +155 points to +200 at this hour. Aside from the small-cap Russell 2000, which still has about 4% to make up, these indices are approaching trading levels we saw a month ago — meaning the last few days of market strength has thus far wiped out the past month of losses.
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Initial Claims Higher Than Expected
This being Thursday morning, we’d likely be seeing new Weekly Jobless Claims figures, even if it weren’t “Jobs Week.” And even though it is, we still do: Initial Jobless Claims climbed to 217K last week, higher than the upwardly revised 212K the previous week. For Continuing Claims, we’re back above 1.8 million for the first time since April: 1.818 million, up from the downwardly revised 1.783 million the previous week.
Even though these numbers are up from early-September lows, they do not change the overview of the U.S. labor market, which remains healthy. Yesterday’s private-sector payroll report from ADP (ADP - Free Report) was lower than expected and month over month, but still easily gained more than the number of retiring workers domestically. Plus, JOLTS figures for September actually raised to 9.6 million from 9.4 million the previous month, though this report is a month in arrears from other employment data.
Tomorrow brings us nonfarm payrolls from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and a new Household Survey, together which make up the monthly Employment Situation. Expectations are for job gains to come in roughly half where they did a month ago, +170K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain 3.8%, with year-over-year hourly wages predicted to tick down from last month’s print to +4.0%. These are all numbers the Fed can live with after opting not to raise interest rates yesterday.
Q3 Productivity came in this morning hotter than expected: +4.7% versus +4.3% that analysts had been anticipating, and the +3.5% reported for the previous month. Though this is a preliminary headline — subject to often sizable revisions over time — it still represents the strongest quarter of productivity in three years.
The associated Q3 Unit Labor Costs, on the other hand, came down: -0.8% versus expectations of +0.7% and the previous month’s +2.2% — more good news for the Fed, who wants to see productivity rise but not wages along with it. We’ll net more color on this tomorrow when October hourly wages hit the tape.
Starbucks (SBUX - Free Report) reported fiscal Q4 earnings this morning, beating expectations on both top and bottom lines: earnings of $1.06 per share notched a +9.28% positive surprise over the 97 cents expected — and much higher than the 81 cents per share reported a year ago. Revenues also topped the Zacks consensus by +1.62% to $9.37 billion in the quarter. Global same-store sales ratcheted higher than expected, with China putting up a game +5%. Shares have crossed back into positive territory on the report, up +12% so far in today’s pre-market.
Crox (CROX - Free Report) , on the other hand, even though it also outpaced expectations on both top and bottom lines, is sinking in pre-market trading to the tune of -13%, further pulling shares into negative territory year to date. Full-year earnings guidance, instead of raising with one quarter remaining following and earnings beat, came down to a range of $11.55-11.85 per share. The Zacks consensus had been for $12.10 per share.
Overall, however, pre-market trading likes what it sees quite a bit. Much of what we see up on major indices this morning came after much of this economic data was reported: the Dow went from +150 points before to +220 after, the S&P 500 from +25 to +35, and the Nasdaq from +155 points to +200 at this hour. Aside from the small-cap Russell 2000, which still has about 4% to make up, these indices are approaching trading levels we saw a month ago — meaning the last few days of market strength has thus far wiped out the past month of losses.