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AstraZeneca (AZN) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
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AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2023 results on Nov 9, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, the companydelivered an earnings surprise of 11.34%.
Factors to Consider
Sales of AstraZeneca’s key medicines, mainly cancer drugs — Lynparza, Tagrisso and Imfinzi — and diabetes medicine Farxigaare expected to have driven the company’s third-quarter sales, backed by strong demand trends.
Our model estimates for Lynparza, Tagrisso and Imfinzi are pegged at $750 million, $1.54 billion and $966 million, respectively. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lynparza, Tagrisso and Imfinzi is pegged at $748 million, $1.53 billion and $1.06 billion, respectively.
AstraZeneca markets Lynparza in partnership with Merck (MRK - Free Report) . AstraZeneca and Merck formed a profit-sharingdeal to co-market Lynparza and Koselugo in July 2017.
AstraZeneca/Merck’s Lynparza is approved for four cancer types: ovarian, breast, prostate and pancreatic. The Merck-partnered drug is being evaluated in an earlier-line setting for approved cancer indications.
At the onset of this year, the FDA withdrew the emergency-use authorization granted to Evusheld, AstraZeneca’s antibody cocktail medicine for COVID-19. Per the agency, Evusheld does not neutralize Omicron subvariants that are in circulation and responsible for more than 90% of COVID cases in the United States. Based on this decision, we do not expect the company to record any Evusheld product sales. Also, the sales contribution of the COVID-19 vaccine, Vaxzevria, is likely to have been nil due to the conclusion of many initial contracts.
Since there has been a significant decline in the COVID-19 product sales, we expect overall sales in the Vaccines & Immune (V&I) Therapies segment to be modest. Our model estimate for the V&I Therapies segment is pegged at $144 million.
AstraZeneca’s other drugs, Fasenra, Calquence and newer products, the triple combo COPD treatment Breztri and lupus drug Saphnelo (anifrolumab), are likely to have contributed to sales growth in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. Sales of key respiratory medicine, Symbicort, are likely to have been hurt by pricing pressure in Europe and the United States and generic erosion in Japan.
The Zacks Consensus Estimates for Fasenra and Calquence are pegged at $418 million and $651 million, respectively. Our model estimates for Fasenra and Calquence revenues are pegged at $410 million and $672 million, respectively.
Sales of AstraZeneca’s legacy drugs,such as Iressa, Faslodex, Arimidex and Casodex, have been declining due to rising generic competition. The trend is likely to have continuedin the soon-to-be-reported quarter.
Sales in AstraZeneca’s Rare Disease drugs, which were added following the Alexion acquisition in 2021, have registered significant growth in recent quarters on the back of solid demand and geographic expansions for Ultomiris and Strensiq. This trend is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.
Our model estimates for Ultomiris and Strensiq revenues are pegged at $873 million and $319 million, respectively.
During the first half of 2023, overall sales in China started showing recovery. This can be attributed to rising patient demand, which offset the National Reimbursement Drug List renewal price reductions. We expect this positive trend to continue in the third quarter.
Collaboration and alliance revenues are expected to have been an essential contributor to the topline. Our model estimates for the same are pegged at $616 million.
AstraZeneca expects a rise in core operatingcosts during the quarter, driven by investment in recent product launches and increased expenses in starting new clinical studies on pipeline advancements.
Earnings Surprise History
The British drugmaker’s performance was impressive, with earnings beating estimates in each of the last four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.38%, on average.
In the year so far, AstraZeneca’s shares have lost5.7% against the 2.8% rise of the industry.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for AstraZeneca in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. That is not thecase here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: AstraZeneca’s Earnings ESP is -3.38% as the Most Accurate Estimate of 76 cents per ADR is less than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 79 cents. Youcan uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Here are some large biotech stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.94% and a Zacks Rank #1.
Ligand’s shares have declined 19.2% year to date. LGND beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing the mark on one occasion, delivering an average earnings surprise of 52.47%. Ligand is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Nov 8, after market close.
bluebird bio (BLUE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +12.73% and a Zacks Rank #3.
bluebird’s stock has lost 49.7% in the year-to-date period. BLUE beat earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, delivering an earnings surprise of 89.60% on average. bluebird will report its third-quarter results on Nov 7, before the opening bell.
Image: Bigstock
AstraZeneca (AZN) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2023 results on Nov 9, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, the companydelivered an earnings surprise of 11.34%.
Factors to Consider
Sales of AstraZeneca’s key medicines, mainly cancer drugs — Lynparza, Tagrisso and Imfinzi — and diabetes medicine Farxigaare expected to have driven the company’s third-quarter sales, backed by strong demand trends.
Our model estimates for Lynparza, Tagrisso and Imfinzi are pegged at $750 million, $1.54 billion and $966 million, respectively. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lynparza, Tagrisso and Imfinzi is pegged at $748 million, $1.53 billion and $1.06 billion, respectively.
AstraZeneca markets Lynparza in partnership with Merck (MRK - Free Report) . AstraZeneca and Merck formed a profit-sharingdeal to co-market Lynparza and Koselugo in July 2017.
AstraZeneca/Merck’s Lynparza is approved for four cancer types: ovarian, breast, prostate and pancreatic. The Merck-partnered drug is being evaluated in an earlier-line setting for approved cancer indications.
At the onset of this year, the FDA withdrew the emergency-use authorization granted to Evusheld, AstraZeneca’s antibody cocktail medicine for COVID-19. Per the agency, Evusheld does not neutralize Omicron subvariants that are in circulation and responsible for more than 90% of COVID cases in the United States. Based on this decision, we do not expect the company to record any Evusheld product sales. Also, the sales contribution of the COVID-19 vaccine, Vaxzevria, is likely to have been nil due to the conclusion of many initial contracts.
Since there has been a significant decline in the COVID-19 product sales, we expect overall sales in the Vaccines & Immune (V&I) Therapies segment to be modest. Our model estimate for the V&I Therapies segment is pegged at $144 million.
AstraZeneca’s other drugs, Fasenra, Calquence and newer products, the triple combo COPD treatment Breztri and lupus drug Saphnelo (anifrolumab), are likely to have contributed to sales growth in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. Sales of key respiratory medicine, Symbicort, are likely to have been hurt by pricing pressure in Europe and the United States and generic erosion in Japan.
The Zacks Consensus Estimates for Fasenra and Calquence are pegged at $418 million and $651 million, respectively. Our model estimates for Fasenra and Calquence revenues are pegged at $410 million and $672 million, respectively.
Sales of AstraZeneca’s legacy drugs,such as Iressa, Faslodex, Arimidex and Casodex, have been declining due to rising generic competition. The trend is likely to have continuedin the soon-to-be-reported quarter.
Sales in AstraZeneca’s Rare Disease drugs, which were added following the Alexion acquisition in 2021, have registered significant growth in recent quarters on the back of solid demand and geographic expansions for Ultomiris and Strensiq. This trend is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.
Our model estimates for Ultomiris and Strensiq revenues are pegged at $873 million and $319 million, respectively.
During the first half of 2023, overall sales in China started showing recovery. This can be attributed to rising patient demand, which offset the National Reimbursement Drug List renewal price reductions. We expect this positive trend to continue in the third quarter.
Collaboration and alliance revenues are expected to have been an essential contributor to the topline. Our model estimates for the same are pegged at $616 million.
AstraZeneca expects a rise in core operatingcosts during the quarter, driven by investment in recent product launches and increased expenses in starting new clinical studies on pipeline advancements.
Earnings Surprise History
The British drugmaker’s performance was impressive, with earnings beating estimates in each of the last four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.38%, on average.
In the year so far, AstraZeneca’s shares have lost5.7% against the 2.8% rise of the industry.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for AstraZeneca in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. That is not thecase here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: AstraZeneca’s Earnings ESP is -3.38% as the Most Accurate Estimate of 76 cents per ADR is less than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 79 cents. Youcan uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: AstraZeneca currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some large biotech stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.94% and a Zacks Rank #1.
Ligand’s shares have declined 19.2% year to date. LGND beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing the mark on one occasion, delivering an average earnings surprise of 52.47%. Ligand is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Nov 8, after market close.
bluebird bio (BLUE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +12.73% and a Zacks Rank #3.
bluebird’s stock has lost 49.7% in the year-to-date period. BLUE beat earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, delivering an earnings surprise of 89.60% on average. bluebird will report its third-quarter results on Nov 7, before the opening bell.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.