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Novavax (NVAX) Beats on Q3 Earnings & Sales, Cuts Sales View

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Novavax, Inc. (NVAX - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2023 loss of $1.26 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.82. In the year-ago quarter, the company posted a loss of $2.15 per share.

Revenues in the quarter amounted to $187.0 million, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $165.1 million. In the year-ago quarter, the company posted revenues of $735.0 million.

Quarter in Detail

Novavax is marketing different versions of its protein-based COVID-19 vaccine — one marketed in partnership with the Serum Institute of India (Serum) under the trade name Covovax and another version produced by Novavax marketed under the trade name Nuvaxovid. In the United States, the vaccine is marketed as Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine, Adjuvanted.

During the quarter, the company recorded product sales of $2.2 million of product sales, which were significantly lower than the product sales of $285.2 million in the year-ago quarter. The reported product sales beat our model estimates of $36 million.

Grant revenues rose 55% year over year to $165.0 million for the same period, benefiting from milestone achievements related to U.S. market preparedness and progress on clinical projects.

Novavax recorded $19.8 million of revenues from royalties and adjuvant sales to licensing partners, a substantial rise from the year-ago quarter’s revenues of $2.2 million. The reported revenues include $12 million in Matrix-M sales earned from the company’s collaboration partner in support of launch preparations for the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine.

In the reported quarter, research and development (R&D) expenses were $106 million, down 65% year over year. The downside can be attributed to a reduction in clinical and manufacturing spending and a $58-million benefit associated with the negotiated settlement of manufacturing liabilities recorded during the third quarter.

Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses were down 13% year over year to $107 million. The downside can be attributed to spending reduction following the cost-reduction plan initiated during the second quarter.

As of Sep 30, 2023, Novavax had $666 million of cash and cash equivalents compared with $518 million as of Jun 30, 2023. The rise in cash balance is due to sale of the company’s common stock through at-the-market offerings, wherein management raised $143 million in net proceeds during the quarter.

Financial Outlook

For 2023

Management revised its guidance for the full year 2023.

Novavax lowered total revenues forecast to $0.9-$1.1 billion, down from the previously issued guidance of $1.3-$1.5 billion. This guidance includes product sales, which are expected to be $850 million, a cut from the previously issued guidance of $0.96-$1.14 billion. The curtailed guidance is attributed to uncertainty in the U.S. market and delayed approval in Europe, which benefitted competitors Moderna and Pfizer. Grant revenues are now expected to be around $450, up from the previously issued guidance of $340-$360 million.

Novavax’s shares lost 1.3% on Nov 9, likely due to the lowering of the overall revenue guidance. Year to date, Novavax’s shares have declined 34.7% compared with the industry’s 21.8% fall.

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Management’s guidance for combined R&D and SG&A expenses are expected between $1.15-$1.25 billion, a $150 million cut from the previously issued range of $1.3-$1.4 billion.

For 2024

Management issued fresh guidance for first-quarter 2024. Though it initially expected to record no revenues from product sales during the quarter, the delayed start to and expectation for a longer 2023-2024 vaccination season in the United States has led to some portion of revenue recognition during this period. Novavax expects to record total revenues of around $300 million in first-quarter 2024, entirely from product sales.

Novavax is also ready to initiate an additional cost-reduction program to reduce 2024 expenses by over $300 million to align itself with the COVID market opportunity.

Management expects that it can bring down its combined R&D and SG&A expenses for the full year 2024 by over $200 million, to reflect $750 million or lower spending for the full year, indicating more than 50% reduction in expenses compared with 2022 figures. As Novavax continues to rationalize its manufacturing footprint, management expects to reduce supply network costs by over $100 million.

Recent Updates

Alongside its Q3 results, Novavax announced that it expects to start a pivotal phase III study on its investigational COVID-19-influenza combination (CIC) vaccine before 2024-end, with the intent to commercially market the same in as early as 2026.

Last month, the FDA granted emergency use authorization (EUA) to an updated version of Novavax’s protein-based COVID-19 vaccine for use in individuals aged 12 and older. The vaccine is available for use across all commercial channels as the only non-mRNA vaccination option in the country. This updated vaccine is approved for a similar use in the European Union.

 

Zacks Rank and Stocks to Consider

Currently, Novavax has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). Some better-ranked stocks in the overall healthcare sector include Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS - Free Report) , Avid Bioservices (CDMO - Free Report) and Biohaven (BHVN - Free Report) , also carrying a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals’ loss estimates for 2023 have narrowed from $4.89 to $4.59 per share in the past 60 days. During the same period, the loss estimates per share for 2024 have narrowed from $2.78 to $1.92. Year to date, Apellis Pharmaceuticals’ shares have lost 10.4%.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals beat earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing the mark on the other two occasions, witnessing a negative earnings surprise of 3.91% on average. In the last reported quarter, APLS reported a negative earnings surprise of 39.29%.

In the past 60 days, estimates for Avid Bioservices’ 2023 loss per share have narrowed from 15 cents to 5 cents. During the same period, the earnings estimates per share for 2024 have risen from 13 cents to 21 cents. Shares of CDMO are down 61.7% in the year-to-date period.

Earnings of Avid Bioservices beat estimates in three of the last four quarters while meeting the mark on one occasion, witnessing an average earnings surprise of 181.25%. In the last reported quarter, Avid’s earnings beat estimates by 100.00%.

Biohaven’s loss estimate has narrowed from $4.99 to $4.93 per share in the past 30 days. During the same period, the loss estimates per share for 2024 have narrowed from $4.81 to $4.79. Shares of BHVN have surged 99.0% in the year-to-date period.

The earnings of Biohaven beat estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing the mark on the other two occasions, witnessing a negative average earnings surprise of 29.37%. Biohaven’s earnings missed estimates by 6.45%.

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