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Burlington Stores (BURL) to Post Q3 Earnings: A Peek Into Comps

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Market watchers are eagerly awaiting Burlington Stores, Inc.’s (BURL - Free Report) third-quarter fiscal 2023 results, scheduled to be reported on Nov 21 before market open. This time, too, investors’ focus will center around comparable store sales, the key metric to gauge the company’s performance.

Insights Into Comparable Sales

Before delving into the third-quarter scenario, let's revisit the second quarter.

In the second quarter, Burlington Stores reported a 4% increase in comp store sales, which aligned with its guidance and reflected a resilient trend in a challenging environment. However, the underlying economic pressure on the low-income shopper — the company's core customer — remains a focal point. Rising living costs, coupled with lower benefits, continue to constrain discretionary spending for this demographic.

Nonetheless, Burlington Stores has adeptly responded to the challenges in the retail landscape by strategically emphasizing recognizable brands, implementing the best pricing strategy and targeting trade-down shoppers. The expansion of its merchandise offering, especially the increased focus on recognizable brands, is expected to have positively impacted the company's merchandise margin.

On its last earnings call, Burlington Stores guided a 13% to 15% increase in sales, with 5% to 7% growth in comparable store sales. We expect a comparable store sales increase of 6.4% for the quarter under discussion.

How Are Estimates Shaping Up?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues stands at $2,313 million, indicating an increase of 13.4% from the prior-year reported figure. Although the Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share has fallen by a couple of cents to 99 cents in the past seven days, the figure still suggests a sharp increase from 43 cents reported in the year-ago period.

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Burlington Stores this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is the case here.

Burlington Stores has an Earnings ESP of +0.64% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

3 More Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three other companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.51% and a Zacks Rank #1. The company is likely to register a bottom-line increase when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly earnings per share of 48 cents suggests an increase from 42 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

American Eagle Outfitters’ top line is expected to increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.28 billion, which indicates an increase of 2.8% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. American Eagle Outfitters has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 43.2%, on average.

Costco (COST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $3.43 suggests a rise of 10.7% from the year-ago reported number.

Costco’s top line is expected to rise year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $57.69 billion, which calls for an increase of 6% from the prior-year quarter. COST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.1%, on average.

Five Below (FIVE - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.69% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is likely to register a bottom-line decrease when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of 23 cents suggests a drop of 20.7% from the year-ago quarter.

Five Below’s top line is expected to increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $726 million, which indicates a rise of 12.6% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. FIVE has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 29.2%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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