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Market Rally Takes Us into Thanksgiving

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None of the main market indices spent as much as a second in the red today, buoying stronger on less data than we’ve seen in the past several weeks. The Dow ground forward another +184 points, +0.53%; the S&P 500 grew +0.41%; the Nasdaq +65 points, +0.46%; and the small-cap Russell 2000 gained +0.69%.

Off late October lows, all four indices are performing spectacularly: the Dow +8.67%, the S&P +10.41%, the Nasdaq +12.83%, and the Russell — which still looked in danger of stalling out a few times — has grown +9.53% over the past four weeks.

Basically, the narratives that boosted the markets in the first place are what drove things today: a Fed that is for all intents and purposes done raising interest rates, a better-than-expected Q3 earnings season, and falling oil prices and other consumer price data. Bond yields have stepped back from their multi-year highs, although they did manage to creep back up to 4.906% on the 2-year and 4.416% on 10s (while re-widening the yield curve inversion).

Final Consumer Sentiment for November, brought to us by the University of Michigan, revised higher from 60.4 previously to 61.3 this morning. This is still down from the 63.8 reported for October, and represents the fourth-straight downward move in sentiment, though clearly off the lows set in November of last year: 56.7. The highs of this cycle came this past July: 71.5. We’re still positive here, though lower consumer appetite remains what the Fed hopes to see as it tracks data ahead of the next policy meeting mid-December.

Obviously, we’re off for Thanksgiving tomorrow — happy happy and gobble-gobble from all us to all of yours — and returning Friday morning. This will be a half-trading day, with markets closing 1pm ET, so that everyone can take advantage of Black Friday sales as the starting gun for holiday shopping season begins in earnest. Enjoy your holiday, everyone!

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