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Hawaiian Holdings (HA) Up 17.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Hawaiian Holdings (HA - Free Report) . Shares have added about 17.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Hawaiian Holdings due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Wider-Than-Expected Loss in Q3
Hawaiian Holdings posted third-quarter 2023 loss (excluding 12 cents from non-recurring items) of $1.06 per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 76 cents. In the year-ago quarter, HA posted a loss of 15 cents.
Quarterly revenues of $727.7 million fell 1.8% year over year and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $743.1 million. Quarterly revenues were hurt by a devastating wildfire in Lahaina in West Maui, in turn, affecting traffic.
Notably, passenger revenues accounted for 91.4% of the top line in third-quarter 2023.
Scheduled airline traffic (measured by revenue passenger miles) increased 8.2% year over year. Scheduled capacity (measured in available seat miles or ASM) rose 4.2% year over year to 5166.5 million. Passenger load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) improved to 86.1% from 83% reported a year ago.
Passenger revenue per ASM or PRASM decreased to 12.87 cents, witnessing a year-over-year fall of 3.8%. Operating revenue per ASM (RASM) fell by 5.7% on a year-over-year basis.
Average fuel cost per gallon (economic) decreased 17.5% to $2.92 in the third quarter compared with year-ago levels. Operating cost per ASM or CASM, excluding aircraft fuel and non-recurring items, inched up 1% year over year to 15.14 cents at third-quarter 2023 end.
Liquidity
As of Sep 30, the company had unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of $1.13 billion, and outstanding debt and finance lease obligations of $1.65 billion.
Q4 2023 Outlook
RASM is expected to go down to 10-13% from fourth-quarter 2022 figures. Capacity is anticipated to increase 1.5-4.5% from fourth-quarter 2022 levels. Costs per ASM (excluding fuel & non-recurring items) are suggested to climb 6.5-9.5% (non-GAAP figures) from fourth-quarter 2022 levels. Gallons of jet fuel consumed are forecast to increase 5-8% from the fourth-quarter 2022 levels. The effective tax rate is envisioned to be around 21% during the fourth quarter. Fuel price per gallon is expected to be $3.09 by the end of fourth-quarter 2023.
2023 Outlook
The below expectations are in comparison to full-year 2022 actuals. Gallons of jet fuel consumed are now suggested to increase 11.5-13% (prior view: up 12.5-14.5%). Fuel price per gallon is anticipated to be $2.89 (prior view: $2.78). ASM are now expected to improve 7.5-8.5% (prior view: up 8-10%). Capital Expenditure is still projected to be $265-295 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.
The consensus estimate has shifted -201.97% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Hawaiian Holdings has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Hawaiian Holdings has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Hawaiian Holdings is part of the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry. Over the past month, Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 14.5%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2023 more than a month ago.
Delta reported revenues of $15.49 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +10.8%. EPS of $2.03 for the same period compares with $1.51 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Delta is expected to post earnings of $1.15 per share, indicating a change of -22.3% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.2% over the last 30 days.
Delta has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of A.
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Hawaiian Holdings (HA) Up 17.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Hawaiian Holdings (HA - Free Report) . Shares have added about 17.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Hawaiian Holdings due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Wider-Than-Expected Loss in Q3
Hawaiian Holdings posted third-quarter 2023 loss (excluding 12 cents from non-recurring items) of $1.06 per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 76 cents. In the year-ago quarter, HA posted a loss of 15 cents.
Quarterly revenues of $727.7 million fell 1.8% year over year and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $743.1 million. Quarterly revenues were hurt by a devastating wildfire in Lahaina in West Maui, in turn, affecting traffic.
Notably, passenger revenues accounted for 91.4% of the top line in third-quarter 2023.
Scheduled airline traffic (measured by revenue passenger miles) increased 8.2% year over year. Scheduled capacity (measured in available seat miles or ASM) rose 4.2% year over year to 5166.5 million. Passenger load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) improved to 86.1% from 83% reported a year ago.
Passenger revenue per ASM or PRASM decreased to 12.87 cents, witnessing a year-over-year fall of 3.8%. Operating revenue per ASM (RASM) fell by 5.7% on a year-over-year basis.
Average fuel cost per gallon (economic) decreased 17.5% to $2.92 in the third quarter compared with year-ago levels. Operating cost per ASM or CASM, excluding aircraft fuel and non-recurring items, inched up 1% year over year to 15.14 cents at third-quarter 2023 end.
Liquidity
As of Sep 30, the company had unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of $1.13 billion, and outstanding debt and finance lease obligations of $1.65 billion.
Q4 2023 Outlook
RASM is expected to go down to 10-13% from fourth-quarter 2022 figures. Capacity is anticipated to increase 1.5-4.5% from fourth-quarter 2022 levels. Costs per ASM (excluding fuel & non-recurring items) are suggested to climb 6.5-9.5% (non-GAAP figures) from fourth-quarter 2022 levels. Gallons of jet fuel consumed are forecast to increase 5-8% from the fourth-quarter 2022 levels. The effective tax rate is envisioned to be around 21% during the fourth quarter. Fuel price per gallon is expected to be $3.09 by the end of fourth-quarter 2023.
2023 Outlook
The below expectations are in comparison to full-year 2022 actuals. Gallons of jet fuel consumed are now suggested to increase 11.5-13% (prior view: up 12.5-14.5%). Fuel price per gallon is anticipated to be $2.89 (prior view: $2.78). ASM are now expected to improve 7.5-8.5% (prior view: up 8-10%). Capital Expenditure is still projected to be $265-295 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.
The consensus estimate has shifted -201.97% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Hawaiian Holdings has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Hawaiian Holdings has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Hawaiian Holdings is part of the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry. Over the past month, Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 14.5%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2023 more than a month ago.
Delta reported revenues of $15.49 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +10.8%. EPS of $2.03 for the same period compares with $1.51 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Delta is expected to post earnings of $1.15 per share, indicating a change of -22.3% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.2% over the last 30 days.
Delta has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of A.