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Why Is Gatx (GATX) Up 7.2% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Gatx (GATX - Free Report) . Shares have added about 7.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Gatx due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Earnings Beat in Q3 at GATX

GATX's  third-quarter 2023 earnings per share (EPS) of $1.44 lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.53. The bottom line improved 29% year over year. Revenues of $360.1 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $374.4 million but improved 12.2% year over year.

Lease revenues of $317.2 million grew 8.5% year over year, while Marine operating revenues decreased 87.5% to $0.6 million. Revenues from other sources rose 77.7% to $42.3 million.

Total expenses (on a reported basis) rose 10.1% to $257.1 million.

Profits in the Rail North American segment increased to $66.1 million from $64.3 million a year ago. The renewal lease rate change of GATX’s Lease Price Index (LPI) was 33.4% in the reported quarter compared with the year-ago quarter’s 18.8%. The average lease renewal term for cars included in LPI was 65 months compared with 52 months a year ago.

Rail North America’s wholly-owned fleet consisted of approximately 109,700 rail cars at September 2023-end. Fleet utilization was 99.3% at the end of the third quarter compared with 99.6% at the end of the third quarter of 2022.

In the Rail International segment, segment profit was $28.2 million in the third quarter of 2023 compared with $14.5 million in the year-ago quarter. Quarterly results had an unfavorable impact of $10.8 million from Tax Adjustments and Other Items.

GATX Rail Europe’s fleet totaled more than 29,100 rail cars at the third-quarter end. Fleet utilization was 96% in the reported quarter compared with 99.4% at the end of third-quarter 2022.

The Portfolio Management unit reported a segmental profit of $20.2 million in the third quarter compared with $11.2 million in the year-ago quarter.

As of Sep 30, 2023, GATX had cash and cash equivalents of $203.1 million compared with $317.5 million at the end of June 2023.

GATX anticipates full-year 2023 earnings to modestly exceed the high end of its prior guidance range of $6.50–$6.90 per diluted share.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted 7.59% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Gatx has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Notably, Gatx has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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