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Air Transport Services (ATSG) Up 0.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Air Transport Services (ATSG - Free Report) . Shares have added about 0.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Air Transport Services due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Q3 Earnings Miss at ATSG
Air Transport Services' third-quarter 2023 quarterly earnings per share (excluding 8 cents from non-recurring items) of 32 cents missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 49 cents and declined 46.7% year over year. Revenues of $523.1 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $522.7 million and rose 1.2% year over year.
Air Transport Services’ total fleet in service included 130 aircraft (18 passengers and 112 freighters) at the end of third-quarter 2023 compared with 124 a year ago. Total operating expenses increased 7.4% to $477 million.
Adjusted EBITDA plunged 16% year over year to $137 million. Operating cash flow fell to $117.5 million from $147.9 million a year ago. In the third quarter, adjusted free cash flow was $68.8 million compared with $91.4 million in the prior year.
Management expects 2023 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $560-$580 million (prior view: $610-$620 million). For 2023, ATSG is still projecting $785 million in total capex spend, including $545 million for growth and $240 million in sustaining capex. However, it further reduces its 2024 capex plan to $505 million, down $100 million in growth capex. Management suggests 2023 EPS in the $1.50-$1.70 band (prior view: $1.85 - $2.00).
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -41.41% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Air Transport Services has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Air Transport Services has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Air Transport Services is part of the Zacks Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry. Over the past month, United Parcel Service (UPS - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 8.7%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2023 more than a month ago.
UPS reported revenues of $21.06 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -12.8%. EPS of $1.57 for the same period compares with $2.99 a year ago.
UPS is expected to post earnings of $2.49 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -31.2%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -1.2%.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for UPS. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of C.
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Air Transport Services (ATSG) Up 0.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Air Transport Services (ATSG - Free Report) . Shares have added about 0.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Air Transport Services due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Q3 Earnings Miss at ATSG
Air Transport Services' third-quarter 2023 quarterly earnings per share (excluding 8 cents from non-recurring items) of 32 cents missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 49 cents and declined 46.7% year over year. Revenues of $523.1 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $522.7 million and rose 1.2% year over year.
Air Transport Services’ total fleet in service included 130 aircraft (18 passengers and 112 freighters) at the end of third-quarter 2023 compared with 124 a year ago. Total operating expenses increased 7.4% to $477 million.
Adjusted EBITDA plunged 16% year over year to $137 million. Operating cash flow fell to $117.5 million from $147.9 million a year ago. In the third quarter, adjusted free cash flow was $68.8 million compared with $91.4 million in the prior year.
Management expects 2023 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $560-$580 million (prior view: $610-$620 million). For 2023, ATSG is still projecting $785 million in total capex spend, including $545 million for growth and $240 million in sustaining capex. However, it further reduces its 2024 capex plan to $505 million, down $100 million in growth capex. Management suggests 2023 EPS in the $1.50-$1.70 band (prior view: $1.85 - $2.00).
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -41.41% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Air Transport Services has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Air Transport Services has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Air Transport Services is part of the Zacks Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry. Over the past month, United Parcel Service (UPS - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 8.7%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2023 more than a month ago.
UPS reported revenues of $21.06 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -12.8%. EPS of $1.57 for the same period compares with $2.99 a year ago.
UPS is expected to post earnings of $2.49 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -31.2%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -1.2%.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for UPS. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of C.