It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Franco-Nevada (FNV Quick QuoteFNV - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 10.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Franco-Nevada due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Franco-Nevada Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Sales Up Y/Y

Franco-Nevada reported adjusted earnings of 91 cents per share in third-quarter 2023, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 88 cents per share. The bottom line increased 10% year over year.

The company generated revenues of $310 million in the reported quarter, up 1.7% year over year. The upside was driven by an increase in GEOs from its Precious Metal assets and higher gold prices. This was partially offset by lower commodity prices for its diversified assets.

In the September-end quarter, 77.8% of revenues were sourced from Precious Metal assets (64.5% gold, 10.2% silver and 3.1% platinum group metals).

The company sold 125,337 Gold Equivalent Ounces  (GEOs) from precious metal assets in the reported quarter, up from the prior-year quarter’s 120,542 GEOs. The upside was driven by solid contributions from its Cobre Panama, Guadalupe-Palmarejo and MWS mines.

In the reported quarter, adjusted EBITDA was down 1% year over year to $255 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 82.4% in the quarter under review.

Financial Position

The company had $1,297 million cash in hand at the end of the third quarter of 2023, up from the $1,197 million reported as of the end of 2022. It recorded an operating cash flow of $708 million in the first nine months of 2023, down from $720 million in the prior-year period.

Franco-Nevada is debt-free and uses its free cash flow to expand its portfolio and pay out dividends. FNV now has an available capital of $2.3 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -11.48% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Franco-Nevada has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Franco-Nevada has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Franco-Nevada belongs to the Zacks Mining - Gold industry. Another stock from the same industry, Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM Quick QuoteAEM - Free Report) , has gained 11% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2023.

Agnico reported revenues of $1.64 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +13.3%. EPS of $0.44 for the same period compares with $0.52 a year ago.

Agnico is expected to post earnings of $0.44 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +7.3%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -1.1%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Agnico. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.