Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Why Moderna (MRNA) Stock Price Was Up 13% on Tuesday

Read MoreHide Full Article

Shares of COVID-19 vaccine maker Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) rose 13.1% on Jan 2, after analysts at Oppenheimer recently upgraded the stock’s recommendation to Outperform, with a price target of $142 per share.

Per the Oppenheimer analysts, Moderna could become ‘a five-product commercial company by 2026’. These analysts were encouraged by Moderna’s upcoming product launches over the next 12 to 18 months, which are expected to boost sales in 2025 and positive pipeline expectations.

Over the next two years, Oppenheimer analysts expect Moderna to secure three FDA approvals — mRNA-1345 (RSV vaccine), mRNA-1010 (influenza vaccine) and Merck (MRK - Free Report) -partnered mRNA-4157/V940 [individualized neoantigen therapy (INT) targeting oncology indications].

Oppenheimer expects COVID-19 vaccine sales to hit a low point in 2024, citing vaccine fatigue and the complexities of the U.S. commercial market. The analysts expect COVID-19 vaccine sales to grow from 2025 onward, provided that the company focuses on increasing COVID-19 education and spending on awareness of the disease.

Coincidentally, Moderna also issued an annual letter for shareholders on the same day Oppenheimer issued their Outperform recommendation. Through the letter, Moderna highlighted the company’s milestones achieved in 2023 and reiterated its business outlook plans that were announced at the company’s R&D day held last year in September. However, unlike Oppenheimer, the company believes that its COVID-19 vaccine market share will grow further this year.

In the past year, shares of Moderna have lost 36.6% compared to the industry’s 12.0% fall.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Over the past few months, the company has been coming out encouraging pipeline updates and plans for its business outlook. Last month, Moderna/Merck reported encouraging median follow-up data of around three years from the phase IIb KEYNOTE-942 study evaluating mRNA-4157 in melanoma indication.

Data from the KEYONTE-942 study showed that treatment with mRNA-4157 plus Merck’s blockbuster immuno-oncology drug Keytruda led to a reduction in the risk of recurrence or death by 49% compared with those treated with Keytruda alone. Treatment with this combination also reduced the risk of developing distant metastasis or death by 62% compared with Keytruda alone. Per management, these results exhibit the significant benefit of combining mRNA-4157 with Keytruda over a more extended period of time compared with Keytruda alone.

Based on two-year follow-up data from the KEYNOTE-942 study, management started two pivotal phase III studies last year evaluating the mRNA-4157/Keytruda combination in melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) indications. Over time, Moderna/Merck intends to expand mRNA-4157 in other oncology indications.

At its R&D day held last year, Moderna announced its plans to launch 15 new marketed products, including four in rare disease indications, over the next five years. The company also intends to advance up to 50 new pipeline candidates in clinical development by 2028.

Management provided an encouraging update on an enhanced formulation of its flu vaccine mRNA-1010. During third-quarter 2023, Moderna reported encouraging data from a phase III immunogenicity study (P303) and a separate phase I/II head-to-head study evaluating an enhanced formulation of flu vaccine mRNA-1010. Participants treated with mRNA-1010 elicited higher immune responses across all four A and B strains of influenza compared to the vaccines marketed by GSK and Sanofi. Given the company’s timetable, we expect mRNA-1010 to be its third product launch, which is also expected in 2024.

Currently, the FDA is reviewing the company’s regulatory submission seeking approval for mRNA-1345 in older adults (60 years and older). A final decision is expected later this year. If approved, mRNA-1345 could be Moderna’s second product launch. A regulatory filing is also under review in Europe.

 

Zacks Rank & Key Picks

Moderna currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). A couple of better-ranked stocks in the overall healthcare sector include CytomX Therapeutics (CTMX - Free Report) and Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT - Free Report) , each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

In the past 60 days, estimates for CytomX Therapeutics’ 2023 have improved from a loss of 37 cents per share to earnings of 6 cents. During the same period, the loss estimates per share for 2024 have narrowed from 51 cents to 6 cents. Shares of CytomX have risen 1.2% in the past year.

CytomX Therapeutics’ earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing the estimates on one occasion. On average, the company witnessed an average surprise of 45.44%. In the last reported quarter, CytomX Therapeutics’ earnings beat estimates by 123.53%.

In the past 60 days, Sarepta’s loss estimates for 2023 have improved from a loss of $7.53 per share to $6.80 per share. During the same period, earnings estimates per share for 2024 have risen from 46 cents to $1.71. Sarepta’s shares have lost 23% in the past year.

Sarepta’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 48.67%. In the last reported quarter, Sarepta’searnings beat estimates by 72.29%.

Published in