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Thor Industries (THO) Up 2.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Thor Industries (THO - Free Report) . Shares have added about 2.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Thor Industries due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Thor Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Decline Sharply Y/Y

Thor reported earnings of 99 cents per share for first-quarter fiscal 2024 (ended Oct 31, 2023), which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 87 cents. The bottom line tumbled 60.9% from the year-ago quarter’s earnings of $2.53 per share.

The company registered revenues of $2,500.8 million for the quarter under review, lagging the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,510.4 million. The top line declined 19.5% year over year.

Segmental Results

North American Towable RVs: Revenues from the segment came in at $945.5 million, down 28.3% year over year due to a decrease in unit shipments and overall net price per unit. It also missed our estimate of $1,186 million.

Gross profit totaled $118 million, declining 39.7% year over year. The pretax income totaled $49.2 million, down from $111 million recorded in the year-ago period amid lower sales and gross profit margins. The unit’s total backlog was $795.8 million at the quarter's end, down sharply from $1,567.8 million as of Oct 31, 2022.

North American Motorized RVs: Revenues from the segment totaled $711.2 million, which fell 36.7% year over year, owing to a decrease in unit shipments and net price per unit. However, the figure surpassed our estimate of $597.5 million.

Gross profit totaled $79.4 million, falling 57.3% year over year. Consequently, pretax profit came in at $37.1 million, declining 70.2% from the year-ago period. The segment’s backlog was $1,237.5 million, down from $2,864.3 million as of Oct 31, 2022.

European RVs: Revenues from the segment came in at $708.2 million, up 40.4% from the year-ago period due to an increase in unit shipments and net price per unit. It also outpaced our estimate of $613.5 million.

Gross profit of $122.8 million increased by 78.4% year over year. The segment reported a pretax income of $28.8 million, higher than the year-ago pretax loss of $6.5 million. The backlog of the segment was $3,331.1 million, reflecting a rise from $2,985.2 million recorded as of Oct 31, 2022.

Financials

As of Oct 31, 2023, Thor had cash and cash equivalents of $425.8 million and long-term debt of $1,271.9 million. During the first quarter of fiscal 2024, THO repurchased $30 million of common stock at an average price of $91.61.

Guidance for Fiscal 2024

Thor has reaffirmed its full-year guidance for fiscal 2024. It projects its full-year consolidated net sales in the range of $10.5-$11 billion. The consolidated gross profit margin is expected to be in the range of 14.5-15%. Earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $6.25-$7.25.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -14.48% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Thor Industries has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Thor Industries has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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