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2 Energy Stocks Poised to Outshine Q4 Earnings Estimates

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Oil energy companies will start reporting fourth-quarter earnings this week. As the oil pricing scenario was favorable, better-than-expected earnings are anticipated from energy majors like Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM - Free Report) . Additionally, a stable midstream business may have supported Phillips 66 (PSX - Free Report) .

Oil Price Impressive

The pricing scenario of oil was remarkable in the fourth quarter of 2023. Per data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average West Texas Intermediate spot crude price per barrel in the December quarter was $78.63. Although the price was not as high as in the year-ago quarter, the commodity price was favorable. This is likely to have provided incentives to the exploration and production companies to produce more of the commodity, although the growth rate has been slowing.

Per the Zacks Earnings Trends, the energy sector’s quarterly earnings will be $35.1 billion, lower than $47.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022.

How to Pick the Right Stocks?

Given the backdrop and large number of energy stocks, it is by no means an easy task for investors to arrive at picks that have the potential to deliver better-than-expected earnings.

While there is no fool-proof method of picking outperformers, our proprietary methodology — the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — helps identify stocks that have high chances of delivering a surprise in their upcoming earnings announcement. Our research shows that for stocks with this combination, the chance of a positive earnings surprise is as high as 70%.

The Earnings ESP shows the percentage difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Our Choices

ExxonMobil is a leading integrated energy company and recently entered into a staggering $59.5 billion all-stock deal to buy Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD - Free Report) . Favorable oil prices are likely to have backed XOM’s bottom line in the fourth quarter.

ExxonMobil has an Earnings ESP of +1.93% and currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. It is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 2, before the opening bell.

Phillips 66 is a diversified energy company with its operations comprising stable midstream, chemicals, refining and marketing and specialties.

PSX has an Earnings ESP of +0.31% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3, at present. It is set to release earnings on Jan 31.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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