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J&J (JNJ) Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?
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Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - Free Report) will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results on Jan 23, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 5.56%.
Factors to Consider
J&J’s Innovative Medicines segment (previously the Pharmaceutical segment) sales are expected to have been driven by higher sales of key products such as Darzalex, Stelara, Tremfya and Erleada due to strong market growth and demand trends.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Darzalex is pegged at $2.50 billion, while our model estimate is $2.47 billion.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Stelara is $2.56 billion, while our model estimate is $2.49 billion.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tremfya is $885 million, while our model estimate is $868.0 million.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Erleada is $720.0 million, while our model estimate is $660.9 million.
Other products like Invega Sustenna and Uptravi are likely to have recorded growth. Importantly, new drugs, Carvykti, a BCMA CAR-T therapy approved for relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma, and Spravato, approved for treatment-resistant depression, are likely to have contributed to top-line growth.
However, lower sales of its key medicine, Imbruvica, and the COVID-19 vaccine are likely to have hurt the top line in the fourth quarter. Rising competitive pressure in the United States from novel oral agents is likely to have hurt sales of key drug, Imbruvica. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Imbruvica is $740.0 million, while our estimate is $686.4 million.
Generic/biosimilar competition for drugs like Zytiga and Remicade is likely to have hurt the top line.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for J&J’s Innovative Medicines segment is $13.41 billion, while our estimate is $13.1 billion.
In the MedTech segment, J&J expects continued recovery in worldwide procedure volumes, improvement in supply levels and uptake from recently launched products to continue to drive sales in the fourth quarter. However, the impact of volume-based procurement issues in China, supply challenges in some categories and headwinds from international sanctions in Russia might have hurt sales to some extent.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for J&J’s MedTech segment is $7.48 billion, while our model estimate is $7.56 billion.
In August, J&J completely separated its Consumer Health business into a newly listed company called Kenvue (KVUE - Free Report) , which now operates as a separate and fully independent company.
After completion of the exchange offer, J&J now has a 9.5% stake (approximately 180 million shares) in Kenvue’s common stock, which it may monetize in a tax-efficient manner in 2024.
Earnings Surprise History
The healthcare bellwether’s performance has been pretty impressive, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.37%, on average.
J&J’s stock has declined 4.4% in the past year against an increase of 15.6% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for J&J this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: J&J’s Earnings ESP is 0.00% as both the Zacks Consensus Estimate as well as the Most Accurate Estimate stand at $2.27 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: J&J has a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some large drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Novartis’ stock has risen 17.2% in the past year. Novartis topped earnings estimates in the last four quarters. NVS delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.99%, on average. Novartis is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Jan 31.
AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.17% and a Zacks Rank #3.
AstraZeneca’s stock has declined 5.6% in the past year. AstraZeneca beat earnings estimates in the last four quarters. AZN has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.30%, on average. AstraZeneca is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb 8.
Image: Bigstock
J&J (JNJ) Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - Free Report) will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results on Jan 23, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 5.56%.
Factors to Consider
J&J’s Innovative Medicines segment (previously the Pharmaceutical segment) sales are expected to have been driven by higher sales of key products such as Darzalex, Stelara, Tremfya and Erleada due to strong market growth and demand trends.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Darzalex is pegged at $2.50 billion, while our model estimate is $2.47 billion.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Stelara is $2.56 billion, while our model estimate is $2.49 billion.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tremfya is $885 million, while our model estimate is $868.0 million.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Erleada is $720.0 million, while our model estimate is $660.9 million.
Other products like Invega Sustenna and Uptravi are likely to have recorded growth. Importantly, new drugs, Carvykti, a BCMA CAR-T therapy approved for relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma, and Spravato, approved for treatment-resistant depression, are likely to have contributed to top-line growth.
However, lower sales of its key medicine, Imbruvica, and the COVID-19 vaccine are likely to have hurt the top line in the fourth quarter. Rising competitive pressure in the United States from novel oral agents is likely to have hurt sales of key drug, Imbruvica. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Imbruvica is $740.0 million, while our estimate is $686.4 million.
Generic/biosimilar competition for drugs like Zytiga and Remicade is likely to have hurt the top line.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for J&J’s Innovative Medicines segment is $13.41 billion, while our estimate is $13.1 billion.
In the MedTech segment, J&J expects continued recovery in worldwide procedure volumes, improvement in supply levels and uptake from recently launched products to continue to drive sales in the fourth quarter. However, the impact of volume-based procurement issues in China, supply challenges in some categories and headwinds from international sanctions in Russia might have hurt sales to some extent.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for J&J’s MedTech segment is $7.48 billion, while our model estimate is $7.56 billion.
In August, J&J completely separated its Consumer Health business into a newly listed company called Kenvue (KVUE - Free Report) , which now operates as a separate and fully independent company.
After completion of the exchange offer, J&J now has a 9.5% stake (approximately 180 million shares) in Kenvue’s common stock, which it may monetize in a tax-efficient manner in 2024.
Earnings Surprise History
The healthcare bellwether’s performance has been pretty impressive, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.37%, on average.
Johnson & Johnson Price and EPS Surprise
Johnson & Johnson price-eps-surprise | Johnson & Johnson Quote
J&J’s stock has declined 4.4% in the past year against an increase of 15.6% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for J&J this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: J&J’s Earnings ESP is 0.00% as both the Zacks Consensus Estimate as well as the Most Accurate Estimate stand at $2.27 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: J&J has a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some large drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Novartis (NVS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.11% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Novartis’ stock has risen 17.2% in the past year. Novartis topped earnings estimates in the last four quarters. NVS delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.99%, on average. Novartis is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Jan 31.
AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.17% and a Zacks Rank #3.
AstraZeneca’s stock has declined 5.6% in the past year. AstraZeneca beat earnings estimates in the last four quarters. AZN has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.30%, on average. AstraZeneca is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb 8.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.