A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Winnebago Industries (WGO Quick QuoteWGO - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 6.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Winnebago due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Winnebago Q1 Earnings & Revenues Fall Y/Y 

Winnebago delivered adjusted earnings of $1.06 per share for first-quarter fiscal 2024 (ended Nov 25, 2023), missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.20. The bottom line also fell 48.8% year over year. The RV maker reported revenues of $763 million for the quarter under review, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $728 million. The top line, however, fell 19.9% year over year.

Segmental Performance

Revenues in the Towable RV segment fell 4.8% year over year to $330.8 million, primarily led by a reduction in average selling price. However, the metric surpassed our estimate of $277.5 million due to higher-than-expected total deliveries.

Total deliveries from the Towable RV segment came in at 7,846 units, increasing 9.1% year over year and beating our estimate of 5,641 units. Adjusted EBITDA declined 8.8% to $33.1 million, reflecting deleverage and new product start-up costs. The figure came ahead of our estimate of $29.7 million. The segment’s backlog was $199.8 million (5,290 units), decreasing 54%.

In the reported quarter, revenues in the Motorhome RV segment slid 28% year over year to $334.4 million due to a decline in unit volume. The top line missed our estimate of $339.2 million.

The total deliveries from the Motorhome RV segment came at 1,721 units, down 31.4% year over year but outpacing our estimate of 1,593 units. The segment recorded an adjusted EBITDA of $21.3 million, down 57.6% and lagged our estimate of $25.1 million. The backlog was $545.3 million (3,200 units), down 65.8% from the prior year.

Revenues in the Marine segment were $87.3 million, decreasing 33.5% year over year, primarily due to lower unit sales. The metric also lagged our estimate of $118.9 million due to lower-than-expected deliveries. The total deliveries from the segment came at 1,118 units, down 34.2% year over year and lagged our estimate of 1,428 units.

The Marine segment recorded an adjusted EBITDA of $7.2 million, down 61% year over year and lagging our estimate of $10.2 million. The backlog for the Marine segment was $140.4 million (1,897 units), down 55.9%.

Financials

Winnebago had cash and cash equivalents of $219.6 million as of Nov 25, 2023. Long-term debt (excluding current maturities) increased to $593.1 million from $592.4 million recorded on Aug 26, 2023. The company returned $50 million to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -30.92% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Winnebago has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Winnebago has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.