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Pfizer (PFE) to Report Q4 Earnings: Here's What to Expect
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Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results on Jan 30, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings expectations by 46.88%.
Factors to Note
Pfizer’s revenues are expected to have declined in the fourth quarter of 2023 due to steep declines in revenues from its COVID-19 products on lower demand.
Pfizer records direct sales and alliance revenues from its partner, BioNTech, for the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, and product revenues from its oral antiviral pill for COVID, Paxlovid.
While sales of COVID products are declining due to lower demand, some key non-COVID products like Vyndaqel/Vyndamax and Prevnar family of vaccines, newly acquired products like Nurtec ODT/Vydura and Oxbryta and new product launches are likely to have boosted the top line in the fourth quarter.
Vyndaqel/Vyndamax and Prevnar vaccines have been benefiting from strong demand trends.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Prevnar family of vaccines is $1.89 billion, while our model estimates the same to be $1.76 billion.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Vyndaqel/Vyndamax is $945.0 million, while our model estimates the same to be $921.0 million.
In addition, alliance revenues and direct sales from Eliquis are likely to have provided top-line support.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for alliance revenues from Eliquis is $1.51 billion, while our model estimates the same to be $1.49 billion.
In the Oncology unit, sales of key medicine Ibrance are likely to have been hurt due to competitive pressure.
Investors will be keen to know the sales numbers of Pfizer’s newly launched drugs like RSV vaccine, Abrysvo, ulcerative colitis pill, Velsipity, pentavalent meningococcal vaccine, Penbraya and nasal spray for migraine, Zavzpret.
Among the new products, sales of Abrysvo, which was launched in 2023, were above management’s expectations in the third quarter, driven by strong demand as well as some stocking benefits. It remains to be seen how the vaccine contributed to the top line in the fourth quarter.
Sales of newly acquired products, Nurtec ODT/Vydura and Oxbryta, improved sequentially in the third quarter. The upside may have continued in the fourth quarter. Nurtec ODT/Vydura was added to Pfizer’s portfolio with the acquisition of the majority of Biohaven in 2022. Oxbryta was added with the October 2022 acquisition of Global Blood Therapeutics.
Key Recent Updates
In December 2023, Pfizer issued a weak revenue and profit guidance for 2024 due to lower-than-expected demand for Comirnaty and Paxlovid. Pfizer’s guidance for 2024 included its expectations from the acquisition of Seagen that closed on Dec 14.
Total revenues are expected to be in the range of $58.5 to $61.5 billion in 2024, which is almost flat compared with 2023’s expected range of $58.0 to $61.0 billion. The total revenue guidance includes $3.1 billion in expected revenues from Seagen.
Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range of $2.05 to $2.25 per share, including the expected impact of financing costs related to the Seagen acquisition.
Investors expect an update on the 2024 financial outlook on the fourth-quarter conference call.
Earnings Surprise History
The drug giant’s performance has been strong, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in each of the last four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 25.05% on average.
Pfizer’s stock has declined 36.5% in the past year against an increase of 17.2% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Pfizer this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Pfizer’s Earnings ESP is -31.25%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at a loss of 19 cents per share, while the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at a loss of 26 cents per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Pfizer has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) currently.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some large drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Novartis (NVS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +8.22% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Novartis’ stock has risen 17.1% in the past year. Novartis topped earnings estimates in the last four quarters. NVS delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.99%, on average. Novartis is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Jan 31.
AstraZeneca’s stock has inched up 0.7% in the past year. AstraZeneca beat earnings estimates in the last four quarters. AZN has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.30%, on average. AstraZeneca is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb 8.
Sanofi (SNY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +13.01% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Sanofi’s stock has risen 2.8% in the past year. Sanofi beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed in one. SNY has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.88%, on average. Sanofi is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb 1.
Image: Bigstock
Pfizer (PFE) to Report Q4 Earnings: Here's What to Expect
Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results on Jan 30, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings expectations by 46.88%.
Factors to Note
Pfizer’s revenues are expected to have declined in the fourth quarter of 2023 due to steep declines in revenues from its COVID-19 products on lower demand.
Pfizer records direct sales and alliance revenues from its partner, BioNTech, for the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, and product revenues from its oral antiviral pill for COVID, Paxlovid.
While sales of COVID products are declining due to lower demand, some key non-COVID products like Vyndaqel/Vyndamax and Prevnar family of vaccines, newly acquired products like Nurtec ODT/Vydura and Oxbryta and new product launches are likely to have boosted the top line in the fourth quarter.
Vyndaqel/Vyndamax and Prevnar vaccines have been benefiting from strong demand trends.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Prevnar family of vaccines is $1.89 billion, while our model estimates the same to be $1.76 billion.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Vyndaqel/Vyndamax is $945.0 million, while our model estimates the same to be $921.0 million.
In addition, alliance revenues and direct sales from Eliquis are likely to have provided top-line support.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for alliance revenues from Eliquis is $1.51 billion, while our model estimates the same to be $1.49 billion.
In the Oncology unit, sales of key medicine Ibrance are likely to have been hurt due to competitive pressure.
Investors will be keen to know the sales numbers of Pfizer’s newly launched drugs like RSV vaccine, Abrysvo, ulcerative colitis pill, Velsipity, pentavalent meningococcal vaccine, Penbraya and nasal spray for migraine, Zavzpret.
Among the new products, sales of Abrysvo, which was launched in 2023, were above management’s expectations in the third quarter, driven by strong demand as well as some stocking benefits. It remains to be seen how the vaccine contributed to the top line in the fourth quarter.
Sales of newly acquired products, Nurtec ODT/Vydura and Oxbryta, improved sequentially in the third quarter. The upside may have continued in the fourth quarter. Nurtec ODT/Vydura was added to Pfizer’s portfolio with the acquisition of the majority of Biohaven in 2022. Oxbryta was added with the October 2022 acquisition of Global Blood Therapeutics.
Key Recent Updates
In December 2023, Pfizer issued a weak revenue and profit guidance for 2024 due to lower-than-expected demand for Comirnaty and Paxlovid. Pfizer’s guidance for 2024 included its expectations from the acquisition of Seagen that closed on Dec 14.
Total revenues are expected to be in the range of $58.5 to $61.5 billion in 2024, which is almost flat compared with 2023’s expected range of $58.0 to $61.0 billion. The total revenue guidance includes $3.1 billion in expected revenues from Seagen.
Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range of $2.05 to $2.25 per share, including the expected impact of financing costs related to the Seagen acquisition.
Investors expect an update on the 2024 financial outlook on the fourth-quarter conference call.
Earnings Surprise History
The drug giant’s performance has been strong, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in each of the last four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 25.05% on average.
Pfizer Inc. Price and Consensus
Pfizer Inc. price-consensus-chart | Pfizer Inc. Quote
Pfizer’s stock has declined 36.5% in the past year against an increase of 17.2% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Pfizer this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Pfizer’s Earnings ESP is -31.25%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at a loss of 19 cents per share, while the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at a loss of 26 cents per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Pfizer has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) currently.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some large drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Novartis (NVS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +8.22% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Novartis’ stock has risen 17.1% in the past year. Novartis topped earnings estimates in the last four quarters. NVS delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.99%, on average. Novartis is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Jan 31.
AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.17% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
AstraZeneca’s stock has inched up 0.7% in the past year. AstraZeneca beat earnings estimates in the last four quarters. AZN has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.30%, on average. AstraZeneca is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb 8.
Sanofi (SNY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +13.01% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Sanofi’s stock has risen 2.8% in the past year. Sanofi beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed in one. SNY has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.88%, on average. Sanofi is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb 1.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.