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Will Segmental Performance Aid Northrop's (NOC) Q4 Earnings?

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Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results on Jan 25 before market open.

Northrop delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.79%, on average. The strong revenue performance across its segments is likely to have contributed to the company’s earnings in the to-be-reported quarter. However, interest expenses might have weighed on the bottom line.

Aeronautics Systems to Boost the Top Line

Higher sales volumes of manned aircraft, along with stable contributions from the F-35 and E-2D programs, are likely to have boosted the fourth-quarter revenue performance of the Aeronautics Systems segment.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aeronautics Systems’ fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $2,829.5 million, indicating a rise of 2.6% from the year-ago quarter’s reported revenues.

Defense Systems Hold Potential

Higher volumes from the missile defense and weapons portfolio, like the Integrated Air and Missile Defense Battle Command System, along with a ramp-up on the Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile, are likely to have aided the Defense unit’s revenue performance in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Mission Systems to Remain Strongest

Higher sales from the Networked Information Solutions business area and Marine Systems programs are expected to have favorably impacted Mission Systems’ revenue performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mission System’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $3,029.4 million, indicating a rise of 3.5% from the year-ago quarter’s reported revenues.

Space Systems – A Key Contributor to Revenues

The Space System segments’ revenues are likely to have been positively impacted by higher volumes from the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent, Next Generation Interceptor and Overhead Persistent Infrared programs.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Space System’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $3,681.2 million, suggesting an increase of 12.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported revenues.

Backlog Projections Show Strength

The fourth-quarter backlog of NOC is estimated to improve 4.6% year over year to $82.33 billion. This indicates strength in its business operations that fuels the demand for its products.

Q4 Estimates

With the majority of NOC’s segments likely to report an improvement in sales, one can be optimistic about the company’s top line in the to-be-reported quarter. Also, the strong backlog of Northrop witnessed in prior quarters, favored by the rising global defense budget, may have added impetus to its fourth-quarter revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its fourth-quarter sales is pegged at $10.44 billion, indicating an increase of 4% from the prior-year reported figure.

A favorable top line is likely to have aided the overall earnings of Northrop. However, higher interest expenses and lower non-operating FAS pension benefits might have dampened the company’s bottom line in the fourth quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $5.75 per share, implying a decrease of 23.3% from the prior-year reported figure.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Northrop this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is the case here.

Northrop has an Earnings ESP of +1.49% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are three other defense companies you may want to consider, as these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

Boeing (BA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +12.32% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The long-term earnings growth rate of BA is 4%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Boeing’s fourth-quarter loss per share is pegged at 72 cents, which indicates an improvement from the prior-year loss of $1.75. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BA’s sales is pegged at $21.23 billion, suggesting growth of 6.2% from the prior-year reported figure.

Leidos Holdings Inc. (LDOS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.88% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The long-term earnings growth rate of LDOS is 8.10%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Leidos’ fourth-quarter earnings per share is pegged at $1.73, which indicates a decrease of 5.5% from the prior-year figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LDOS’ sales is pegged at $3.79 billion, suggesting growth of 2.5% from the prior-year reported figure.

CAE Inc. (CAE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +7.18% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The long-term earnings growth rate of CAE is 14.3%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAE’s third-quarter fiscal 2024 sales is pegged at $798.99 million, suggesting growth of 6.3% from the prior-year reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its fiscal third-quarter earnings per share is pegged at 18 cents, implying a decline of 14.3% from the prior-year reported figure.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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