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Will Unum Group's (UNM) Beat Streak Continue in Q4 Earnings?
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Unum Group (UNM - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter 2023 earnings on Jan 30, after market close. The insurer delivered an earnings beat in the last two reported quarters of 2023.
Factors to Note
UNM’s premiums in the to-be-reported quarter are likely to have benefited from solid persistency in-force business and strong sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $2.5 billion, indicating an increase of 5.3% from the year-ago reported quarter. Our estimate is pegged at $2.5 billion.
An improving rate environment is likely to have supported higher net investment income. Our estimate is pegged at $500.3 million.
Improved premiums and an increase in net investment income are likely to have aided top-line growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $3.13 billion, suggesting an increase of 4.2% from the year-ago number.
Favorable benefits experience in group product lines, disciplined sales trends, strong persistency in group lines and growth of new product lines are likely to have favored the Unum U.S. segment. Higher operating expenses might have been a partial offset. Our estimate is pinned at $1.9 billion.
Favorable benefits experience, higher premium income, in-force block growth and improved sales are likely to have favored performance at Colonial Life. The upside is likely to have been partially offset by lower persistency. Our estimate is pegged at $489.6 million.
Growth in the in-force block, resulting from the impact of rate increases in the group long-term disability product line, and higher persistency are likely to have benefited Unum International in the to-be-reported quarter. Our estimate is pegged at $185.3 million.
Expenses are likely to have increased because of higher commissions, interest and debt expenses, amortization of deferred acquisition costs and compensation expenses. We expect total benefits and expenses to be $2.7 billion.
Continued share buybacks are likely to have provided a boost to the bottom line.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share is pegged at $1.86, indicating an increase of 30% from the year-ago reported figure.
Quantitative Model Prediction
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Unum Group this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold), which increases the chances of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP: It has an Earnings ESP of +0.55%. This is because the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.87 is pegged higher than the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.86. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Unum Group currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Other Stocks to Consider
Some other insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:
Arch Capital Group (ACGL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.24% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $1.94, implying a decline of 9.3% from the year-ago reported figure. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
ACGL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
Aflac Incorporated (AFL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.57% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $1.47, indicating an increase of 13.9% from the year-ago quarter.
AFL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
Trupanion, Inc. (TRUP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +30.85% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2023 loss per share is pegged at 19 cents, indicating an increase of 17.4% from the year-ago quarter.
TRUP’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one.
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Will Unum Group's (UNM) Beat Streak Continue in Q4 Earnings?
Unum Group (UNM - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter 2023 earnings on Jan 30, after market close. The insurer delivered an earnings beat in the last two reported quarters of 2023.
Factors to Note
UNM’s premiums in the to-be-reported quarter are likely to have benefited from solid persistency in-force business and strong sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $2.5 billion, indicating an increase of 5.3% from the year-ago reported quarter. Our estimate is pegged at $2.5 billion.
An improving rate environment is likely to have supported higher net investment income. Our estimate is pegged at $500.3 million.
Improved premiums and an increase in net investment income are likely to have aided top-line growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $3.13 billion, suggesting an increase of 4.2% from the year-ago number.
Favorable benefits experience in group product lines, disciplined sales trends, strong persistency in group lines and growth of new product lines are likely to have favored the Unum U.S. segment. Higher operating expenses might have been a partial offset. Our estimate is pinned at $1.9 billion.
Favorable benefits experience, higher premium income, in-force block growth and improved sales are likely to have favored performance at Colonial Life. The upside is likely to have been partially offset by lower persistency. Our estimate is pegged at $489.6 million.
Growth in the in-force block, resulting from the impact of rate increases in the group long-term disability product line, and higher persistency are likely to have benefited Unum International in the to-be-reported quarter. Our estimate is pegged at $185.3 million.
Expenses are likely to have increased because of higher commissions, interest and debt expenses, amortization of deferred acquisition costs and compensation expenses. We expect total benefits and expenses to be $2.7 billion.
Continued share buybacks are likely to have provided a boost to the bottom line.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share is pegged at $1.86, indicating an increase of 30% from the year-ago reported figure.
Quantitative Model Prediction
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Unum Group this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold), which increases the chances of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP: It has an Earnings ESP of +0.55%. This is because the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.87 is pegged higher than the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.86. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Unum Group Price and EPS Surprise
Unum Group price-eps-surprise | Unum Group Quote
Zacks Rank: Unum Group currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Other Stocks to Consider
Some other insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:
Arch Capital Group (ACGL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.24% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $1.94, implying a decline of 9.3% from the year-ago reported figure. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
ACGL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
Aflac Incorporated (AFL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.57% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $1.47, indicating an increase of 13.9% from the year-ago quarter.
AFL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
Trupanion, Inc. (TRUP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +30.85% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2023 loss per share is pegged at 19 cents, indicating an increase of 17.4% from the year-ago quarter.
TRUP’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.