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Tractor Supply (TSCO) to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?
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Tractor Supply Company (TSCO - Free Report) is likely to register declines in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 1, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.7 billion, indicating an 8.5% decline from the prior-year reported figure.
The bottom line of the largest rural lifestyle retailer in the United States is expected to have declined year over year. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share for the fourth quarter has moved down by a penny to $2.22 in the past 30 days. However, the figure suggests growth of 8.6% from the year-ago period’s reported figure.
Tractor Supply has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.5%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Brentwood, TN-based company’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.6%.
Tractor Supply has been gaining from the sturdy demand for core year-round merchandise, including consumable, usable and edible products. Also, the acquisition of Orscheln Farm and Home, store openings, and comparable store sales growth bode well.
The company has been on track with its Out Here lifestyle assortment and convenient shopping format to gain customers and market share. The strategy is essentially based on five key pillars, customers, digitization, execution, team members and total shareholder return. TSCO’s Neighbor's Club loyalty program is also likely to have driven its sales in the to-be-reported quarter.
The company has been on track with the ‘ONETractor’ strategy to connect stores and online shopping. Its omni-channel investments include curbside pickup, same-day and next-day delivery, a re-launched website, and a new mobile app. Earlier, it launched the Tractor Supply Visa Credit Card, which allows customers to earn points on their everyday purchases, both in-store and anywhere Visa is accepted. The company’s rebranding of Petsense by Tractor Supply and the expansion of its Neighbor's Club program to Petsense stores received positive customer feedback. This move is likely to have enabled it to gain pet customers for both banners.
Tractor Supply has persistently been focusing on its growth initiatives, which include the expansion of its store base, and the incorporation of technological advancements to induce traffic and drive the top line. The company’s Project Fusion and Side Lot model transformations have been significant investments toward stores. These store investments target achieving higher market share, and boosting productivity across the existing and new stores.
However, Tractor Supply predicted muted consumer spending and an unfavorable seasonal category performance throughout the remainder of the year. This is likely to have weighed on the company’s top line and comparable store sales performances in the fourth quarter. We anticipate Tractor Supply’s comparable store sales to decline 3.7% in the fourth quarter.
Also, higher depreciation and amortization, the opening of a distribution center, the impacts of higher medical claims, and fixed cost deleverage acted as deterrents. Our model indicates a 40-bps increase in SG&A expense rate on a year-over-year basis.
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tractor Supply this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Tractor Supply has an Earnings ESP of -0.42% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates
Here are some companies that have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:
Canada Goose (GOOS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.35% and currently sports a Zacks Rank #1. The company is likely to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $432 billion, suggesting 1.7% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GOOS’ fiscal third-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.04, indicating 10.6% growth from the year-ago reported figure. The consensus estimate for earnings has improved by a penny in the past 30 days. GOOS has delivered an earnings beat of 59.1%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.61% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is expected to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CMG’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.5 billion, which implies growth of 14.1% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chipotle’s earnings has increased 0.6% to $9.70 in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate for earnings suggests growth of 17% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. CMG has delivered an earnings beat of 5.8%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.
Tapestry (TPR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.74% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. TPR is likely to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2024. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.1 billion, suggesting 1.4% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tapestry’s fiscal second-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.46, suggesting 7.4% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for earnings has been unchanged in the past 30 days. TPR has delivered an earnings beat of 10.6%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.
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Tractor Supply (TSCO) to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO - Free Report) is likely to register declines in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 1, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.7 billion, indicating an 8.5% decline from the prior-year reported figure.
The bottom line of the largest rural lifestyle retailer in the United States is expected to have declined year over year. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share for the fourth quarter has moved down by a penny to $2.22 in the past 30 days. However, the figure suggests growth of 8.6% from the year-ago period’s reported figure.
Tractor Supply has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.5%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Brentwood, TN-based company’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.6%.
Tractor Supply Company Price and EPS Surprise
Tractor Supply Company price-eps-surprise | Tractor Supply Company Quote
Key Factors to Note
Tractor Supply has been gaining from the sturdy demand for core year-round merchandise, including consumable, usable and edible products. Also, the acquisition of Orscheln Farm and Home, store openings, and comparable store sales growth bode well.
The company has been on track with its Out Here lifestyle assortment and convenient shopping format to gain customers and market share. The strategy is essentially based on five key pillars, customers, digitization, execution, team members and total shareholder return. TSCO’s Neighbor's Club loyalty program is also likely to have driven its sales in the to-be-reported quarter.
The company has been on track with the ‘ONETractor’ strategy to connect stores and online shopping. Its omni-channel investments include curbside pickup, same-day and next-day delivery, a re-launched website, and a new mobile app. Earlier, it launched the Tractor Supply Visa Credit Card, which allows customers to earn points on their everyday purchases, both in-store and anywhere Visa is accepted. The company’s rebranding of Petsense by Tractor Supply and the expansion of its Neighbor's Club program to Petsense stores received positive customer feedback. This move is likely to have enabled it to gain pet customers for both banners.
Tractor Supply has persistently been focusing on its growth initiatives, which include the expansion of its store base, and the incorporation of technological advancements to induce traffic and drive the top line. The company’s Project Fusion and Side Lot model transformations have been significant investments toward stores. These store investments target achieving higher market share, and boosting productivity across the existing and new stores.
However, Tractor Supply predicted muted consumer spending and an unfavorable seasonal category performance throughout the remainder of the year. This is likely to have weighed on the company’s top line and comparable store sales performances in the fourth quarter. We anticipate Tractor Supply’s comparable store sales to decline 3.7% in the fourth quarter.
Also, higher depreciation and amortization, the opening of a distribution center, the impacts of higher medical claims, and fixed cost deleverage acted as deterrents. Our model indicates a 40-bps increase in SG&A expense rate on a year-over-year basis.
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tractor Supply this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Tractor Supply has an Earnings ESP of -0.42% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates
Here are some companies that have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:
Canada Goose (GOOS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.35% and currently sports a Zacks Rank #1. The company is likely to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $432 billion, suggesting 1.7% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GOOS’ fiscal third-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.04, indicating 10.6% growth from the year-ago reported figure. The consensus estimate for earnings has improved by a penny in the past 30 days. GOOS has delivered an earnings beat of 59.1%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.61% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is expected to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CMG’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.5 billion, which implies growth of 14.1% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chipotle’s earnings has increased 0.6% to $9.70 in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate for earnings suggests growth of 17% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. CMG has delivered an earnings beat of 5.8%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.
Tapestry (TPR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.74% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. TPR is likely to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2024. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.1 billion, suggesting 1.4% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tapestry’s fiscal second-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.46, suggesting 7.4% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for earnings has been unchanged in the past 30 days. TPR has delivered an earnings beat of 10.6%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.