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ExxonMobil (XOM) Gears Up for Q4 Earnings: What to Expect?

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Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM - Free Report) is set to report fourth-quarter 2023 earnings on Feb 2, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the integrated energy giant’s earnings per share of $2.27 (excluding identified items) missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.36 due to lower realizations of crude prices and a decline in oil equivalent production.

ExxonMobil’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the same twice, delivering an average surprise of 0.60%.

Estimate Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ExxonMobil’s fourth-quarter earnings per share of $2.21 witnessed five upward movements and one downward revision over the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 35% decline from the prior-year reported number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues of $91.81 billion indicates a 3.79% decline from the year-ago reported figure.

Factors to Consider

The pricing scenario of oil and natural gas was impressive in the fourth quarter. Per data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average West Texas Intermediate crude price per barrel in October, November and December was $85.64, $77.69 and $71.90, respectively. Although the prices were not as high as in the year-ago quarter, the commodity prices were impressive and healthy.

Like oil, natural gas price in the December quarter was healthier than in the third quarter, aiding the exploration and production activities of the company.

ExxonMobil, in its recent SEC filing, expressed optimism over higher oil and natural gas prices aiding its fourth-quarter earnings. We project total refinery throughput at 4000.4 thousand barrels per day (Kbd), indicating an increase from 3,983 Kbd reported a year ago.The solid upstream business is likely to have aided ExxonMobil’s earnings in the December quarter of 2023.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for ExxonMobil this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: ExxonMobil has an Earnings ESP of +0.47%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.   

Zacks Rank: ExxonMobil currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other firms that you may want to consider, as these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.21% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Jan 30. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MPC’s earnings is pegged at $2.36 per share, indicating a 64.5% decline from the year-ago reported figure.

Western Midstream Partners, LP (WES - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.96% and a Zacks Rank #3.

The partnership is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 21. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WES’s earnings is pegged at 78 cents per share, indicating a decline from the year-ago quarter’s recorded figure.

Linde plc (LIN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.12% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Linde is scheduled to release fourth-quarter results on Feb 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LIN’s earnings is pegged at $3.50 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year improvement of 10.76%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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