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Things to Note Before Columbia Sportswear's (COLM) Q4 Earnings

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Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM - Free Report) is likely to register a top and bottom-line decline when it reports fourth-quarter 2023 earnings on Feb 1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.1 billion, suggesting a decrease of 7.6% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus mark for quarterly earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at $2.00 per share. This indicates a decline of 18.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. COLM has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 147.8%, on average.

Factors to Consider

Columbia Sportswear has been operating in a challenging U.S. landscape. On its third-quarter earnings call, management stated that consumer demand for soft goods, including apparel and footwear, remains sluggish. For the fourth quarter of 2023, management expects a net sales decline of 10-5% to the $1,054-$1,106 million range due to a soft start to the fall selling season and cautious expectations for the balance of the year. The quarterly EPS is envisioned in the band of $1.93-$2.18 compared with $2.02 reported in the year-ago period.

Columbia Sportswear has been seeing higher SG&A costs for a while now. In the third quarter of 2023, SG&A expenses escalated by 10% to $351.6 million. The year-over-year rise in SG&A expenses can be attributed to elevated costs related to the supply chain, demand creation and DTC. Although the operating margin is expected to expand in the fourth quarter, the company’s view for 2023 suggests a year-over-year decline.

Columbia Sportswear Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Columbia Sportswear Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Columbia Sportswear Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Columbia Sportswear Company Quote

The operating income is likely to come in the range of $146-$166 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, with the operating margin expected to be 13.8-15%. This suggests growth from the operating margin of 13.3% reported in the fourth quarter of 2022. For 2023, the operating margin is expected in the range of 9.8-10.3% compared with the 11.3% reported in 2022.

However, Columbia Sportswear remains on track with its strategic priorities. It has been focused on making demand-creation investments aimed at driving brand awareness and aiding sales. Further, the company has been committed to enhancing consumers’ experience and its digital capacity in all networks and regions. It has also been exploring growth opportunities in the direct-to-consumer business and improving support processes.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Columbia Sportswear this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Columbia Sportswear has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, and it carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three companies worth considering as our model shows that these have the correct combination to beat on earnings this time:

Inter Parfums (IPAR - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +11.27% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is likely to register a top-line increase when it reports fourth-quarter 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Inter Parfums’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $329.1 million, indicating a rise of 5.9% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Inter Parfums’ quarterly earnings of 35 cents suggests a decrease of 50.7% from the year-ago quarter’s levels. IPAR has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 45.7%, on average.

Mondelez International (MDLZ - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.62% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is likely to register top-and-bottom-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mondelez’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $9.3 billion, indicating a rise of roughly 7% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mondelez’s quarterly earnings of 78 cents suggests an increase of 6.9% from the year-ago quarter’s levels. MDLZ has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.3%, on average.

The Estee Lauder Companies (EL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.55% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is likely to witness top-and-bottom-line decline when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2024 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Estee Lauder’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.2 billion, which suggests a drop of 9.2% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Estee Lauder’s quarterly EPS has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at 55 cents, which suggests a drop of 64.3% from the year-ago quarter’s level. EL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 110.1%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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