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Can Higher Policy Income Aid CNO Financial's (CNO) Q4 Earnings?
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CNO Financial Group, Inc. (CNO - Free Report) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 6, 2024, after the closing bell.
Q4 Estimates
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CNO Financial’s fourth-quarter earnings per share is pegged at 85 cents, which indicates a 51.8% surge from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
The consensus mark for revenues is $934 million, suggesting a 4.1% fall from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.
Earnings Surprise History
CNO Financial’s bottom line beat estimates in one of the trailing four quarters, matched the mark once and missed the same in the remaining two occasions, the average negative surprise being 6.09%. This is depicted in the chart below:
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for CNO Financial this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.
Earnings ESP: CNO Financial has an Earnings ESP of +8.24% because the Most Accurate Estimate of 92 cents per share is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 85 cents. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: CNO carries a Zacks Rank of 2, at present.
Factors at Play
The top line of CNO Financial is expected to have benefited on the back of growing sales across field and direct-to-consumer ("D2C") life, Medicare supplement, long-term care and worksite insurance products. This, in turn, is likely to have fetched improved insurance policy income in the fourth quarter. Solid insurance product margins are also likely to have contributed to the quarterly results.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for insurance policy income is pegged at $628 million, which implies a 0.3% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Improved variable investment income is likely to have aided CNO’s investment results in the fourth quarter. The consensus mark for net investment income in the general account assets category is $295 million, which remains flat year over year.
Additionally, fee revenues and other income are likely to have suffered a blow due to the company’s continuous investments to upgrade the worksite business platform. This, in turn, is expected to have dampened overall revenue growth. Nevertheless, an expanding Medicare Advantage customer base amid the annual enrolment period is likely to have provided some respite to the revenue component.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fee revenues and other income is pegged at $30.6 million, suggesting a 55.1% drop from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.
Supplemental health margins in CNO Financial’s health product suite are likely to have been aided by block growth and a reduction in claims. Claims experience in long-term care and Medicare supplement policies are expected to have remained favorable in the to-be-reported quarter.
Meanwhile, higher field and D2C life sales are likely to have contributed to the strong performance of the life insurance business of CNO in the fourth quarter. The consensus mark for insurance policy income from its life products is $220 million, which indicates an improvement of 1.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Total benefits and expenses are likely to have remained high in the to-be-reported quarter due to increased insurance policy benefits, interest expenses and other operating costs.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other companies from the insurance space, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PRI’s fourth-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $4.26 per share, indicating an improvement of 22.1% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number.
Primerica’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 7.84%.
Everest Group, Ltd. (EG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.18% and a Zacks Rank of 3, at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EG’s fourth-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $14.63 per share, suggesting 19.8% growth from the yea-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Everest Group’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark once, the average surprise being 24.50%.
Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company (WTW - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.23% and a Zacks Rank of 3, at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WTW’s fourth-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $7.04 per share, which implies an 11.2% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The stock has witnessed two upward estimate revisions compared with no downward revisions for fourth-quarter earnings over the past 30 days.
Image: Bigstock
Can Higher Policy Income Aid CNO Financial's (CNO) Q4 Earnings?
CNO Financial Group, Inc. (CNO - Free Report) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 6, 2024, after the closing bell.
Q4 Estimates
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CNO Financial’s fourth-quarter earnings per share is pegged at 85 cents, which indicates a 51.8% surge from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
The consensus mark for revenues is $934 million, suggesting a 4.1% fall from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.
Earnings Surprise History
CNO Financial’s bottom line beat estimates in one of the trailing four quarters, matched the mark once and missed the same in the remaining two occasions, the average negative surprise being 6.09%. This is depicted in the chart below:
CNO Financial Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
CNO Financial Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | CNO Financial Group, Inc. Quote
What Our Quantitative Model Unveils
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for CNO Financial this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.
Earnings ESP: CNO Financial has an Earnings ESP of +8.24% because the Most Accurate Estimate of 92 cents per share is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 85 cents. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: CNO carries a Zacks Rank of 2, at present.
Factors at Play
The top line of CNO Financial is expected to have benefited on the back of growing sales across field and direct-to-consumer ("D2C") life, Medicare supplement, long-term care and worksite insurance products. This, in turn, is likely to have fetched improved insurance policy income in the fourth quarter. Solid insurance product margins are also likely to have contributed to the quarterly results.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for insurance policy income is pegged at $628 million, which implies a 0.3% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Improved variable investment income is likely to have aided CNO’s investment results in the fourth quarter. The consensus mark for net investment income in the general account assets category is $295 million, which remains flat year over year.
Additionally, fee revenues and other income are likely to have suffered a blow due to the company’s continuous investments to upgrade the worksite business platform. This, in turn, is expected to have dampened overall revenue growth. Nevertheless, an expanding Medicare Advantage customer base amid the annual enrolment period is likely to have provided some respite to the revenue component.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fee revenues and other income is pegged at $30.6 million, suggesting a 55.1% drop from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.
Supplemental health margins in CNO Financial’s health product suite are likely to have been aided by block growth and a reduction in claims. Claims experience in long-term care and Medicare supplement policies are expected to have remained favorable in the to-be-reported quarter.
Meanwhile, higher field and D2C life sales are likely to have contributed to the strong performance of the life insurance business of CNO in the fourth quarter. The consensus mark for insurance policy income from its life products is $220 million, which indicates an improvement of 1.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Total benefits and expenses are likely to have remained high in the to-be-reported quarter due to increased insurance policy benefits, interest expenses and other operating costs.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other companies from the insurance space, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Primerica, Inc. (PRI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.44% and a Zacks Rank of 2, at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PRI’s fourth-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $4.26 per share, indicating an improvement of 22.1% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number.
Primerica’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 7.84%.
Everest Group, Ltd. (EG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.18% and a Zacks Rank of 3, at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EG’s fourth-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $14.63 per share, suggesting 19.8% growth from the yea-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Everest Group’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark once, the average surprise being 24.50%.
Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company (WTW - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.23% and a Zacks Rank of 3, at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WTW’s fourth-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $7.04 per share, which implies an 11.2% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The stock has witnessed two upward estimate revisions compared with no downward revisions for fourth-quarter earnings over the past 30 days.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.