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What Will NGL Energy Partners' (NGL) Q3 Earnings Unveil?

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NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL - Free Report) is set to release fiscal third-quarter 2024 results on Feb 8. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of 3 cents per share on revenues of $2.1 billion.

Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the diversified energy master limited partnership’s performance in the December quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at NGL’s previous-quarter performance first.

Highlights of Q2 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, this Tulsa, OK-based midstream operator beat the consensus mark on the back of higher water disposal volumes. NGL had reported a loss per unit of 5 cents, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate for a loss of 29 cents. However, revenues of $1.8 billion generated by the firm came in below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.1 billion due to weak sales from the Crude Oil Logistics unit.

NGL beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two, which resulted in an earnings surprise of (28.9%), on average. This is depicted in the graph below:
 

NGL Energy Partners LP Price and EPS Surprise

NGL Energy Partners LP Price and EPS Surprise

NGL Energy Partners LP price-eps-surprise | NGL Energy Partners LP Quote

 

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fiscal third-quarter bottom line has been revised 50% upward in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates an 84.2% drop year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, meanwhile, suggests a 4.3% decrease from the year-ago period.

Factors to Consider

NGL is expected to have reaped the reward of strong growth in its Water Solutions business, which specializes in services for the treatment and disposal of wastewater generated from oil and gas production. In the previous three-month period, the segment’s operating income rose 25.4% year over year to $59.1 million. This positive momentum is most likely to have continued in the fiscal third quarter, thanks to higher produced water processing on a daily basis at its network of large diameter pipelines. This is likely to have buoyed the results of NGL.

On a somewhat bearish note, the decrease in the partnership’s Crude Oil Logistics operating income might have dented its to-be-reported bottom line. NGL’s fiscal second-quarter operating income from the segment — purchasing oil from the producers and shipping to downstream operators for resale — totaled $14.8 million, down from the $32.9 million in the year-ago period. The downward income trajectory is likely to have continued in the fiscal third quarter due to lower contracted rates on the back of weaker commodity prices.

What Does Our Model Say?

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that NGL Energy Partners is likely to beat estimates in the fiscal third quarter of 2024. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: NGL has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 3 cents per share each.

Zacks Rank: NGL currently carries a Zacks Rank #3, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult this earnings season.

Stocks to Consider

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for NGL, here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider some firms that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:

Energy Transfer LP (ET - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.69% and a Zacks Rank #1. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 14.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The 2024 Zacks Consensus Estimate for Energy Transfer indicates 18.1% year-over-year earnings per share growth. Valued at around $45.1 billion, ET has gained 10.4% in a year.

USA Compression Partners, LP (USAC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.35% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 13.

The 2024 Zacks Consensus Estimate for USA Compression Partners indicates 100% year-over-year earnings per share growth. Valued at around $2.5 billion, USAC has gained 20.7% in a year.

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.12% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 9.

Plains All American Pipeline beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.3%, on average. Valued at around $10.7 billion, PAA has gained 21% in a year.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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