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AstraZeneca (AZN) to Report Q4 Earnings: Here's What to Expect

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AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results on Feb 8, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings expectations by 8.75%.

Factors to Note

Sales of AstraZeneca’s key medicines, mainly cancer drugs — Lynparza, Tagrisso, and Imfinzi — and diabetes medicine Farxiga, are expected to have driven the company’s top line in the fourth quarter, backed by strong demand trends.

Approvals for new indications have been boosting sales growth of some key drugs like Imfinzi and Farxiga.

Our model estimates for Tagrisso, Imfinzi, Lynparza and Farxiga are $1.58 billion, $1.15 billion, $795.2 million and $1.72 billion, respectively.

In the third quarter, sales of Lynparza were somewhat hurt by the lower use of PARP inhibitors class of drugs and some label restrictions for use in second-line ovarian cancer in the United States. It remains to be seen if these factors hurt sales in the fourth quarter too.

AstraZeneca’s other drugs, Fasenra and Calquence, and newer products, asthma drug Tezspire and lupus drug, Saphnelo (anifrolumab), are likely to have contributed to sales growth in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. Investors will be keen to know the sales number of AstraZeneca and partner Sanofi’s (SNY - Free Report) respiratory syncytial virus (“RSV”) antibody Beyfortus (nirsevimab). AstraZeneca records Beyfortus product sales from products supplied to Sanofi. Sanofi recorded sales of €410 million ($441.2 million) from Beyfortus in the fourth quarter, as announced last week.

Sales of AstraZeneca’s Rare Disease drugs like Ultomiris and Strensiq are expected to have been strong and contributed to the top line.

Sales of key respiratory medicine, Symbicort are likely to have been hurt due to generic erosion in the United States, Japan and Europe.

Sales of AstraZeneca’s major legacy drugs have been declining due to rising generic competition. The trend is likely to have continued in the fourth quarter.

Overall, sales in China are likely to have been hurt due to pricing pressure associated with the National reimbursement drug list renewal price reductions.

Alliance revenues may be an important contributor to the top line, driven by continued growth in revenues from partnered medicines.

AstraZeneca's operating costs are expected to have increased due to market development for recent launches and pre-launch activities and increasing investment in the pipeline.

Key Recent Developments

In December, the FDA approved AstraZeneca and partner Ionis’ (IONS - Free Report) Wainua (eplontersen) for treating patients with hereditary transthyretin-mediated amyloid polyneuropathy, commonly called ATTRv-PN. Back then, AstraZeneca had said that Wainua would be launched in the United States in January 2024. An update is expected on the fourth-quarter conference call. The FDA also approved capivasertib in combination with AstraZeneca’s other breast cancer drug Faslodex (fulvestrant), for treating breast cancer in December. Capivasertib, a potential first-in-class AKT inhibitor, will be marketed by the name of Truqap.

Earnings Surprise History

The British drug giant’s performance has been strong, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in each of the last four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.30% on average.

AstraZeneca PLC Price and EPS Surprise

AstraZeneca PLC Price and EPS Surprise

AstraZeneca PLC price-eps-surprise | AstraZeneca PLC Quote


AstraZeneca’s stock has risen 3.3% in the past year compared with an increase of 23.3% for the industry.


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Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AstraZeneca this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: AstraZeneca’s Earnings ESP is -1.46%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at 76 cents per share, while the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at 75 cents per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: AstraZeneca has a Zacks Rank #3.

Stock to Consider

Here is a large biotech stock that has the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around.

Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +142.61% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Moderna’s stock has declined 42.8% in the past year. Moderna topped earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters. MRNA delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 31.20%, on average. Moderna is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb 22.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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