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A Week of Fed Speak and Q4 Earnings

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We enter a new week with the feeling that something like a storm has just passed: the last week of trading brought us a slew of monthly and weekly jobs numbers, as well as a majority on the “Magnificent 7” stocks having reported quarterly earnings. (For a little perspective here, Zacks Director of Research Sheraz Mian recently commented that without the “Mag 7,” calendar Q4 earnings growth would be negative thus far. And this is with only six of these seven companies having yet reported; NVIDIA [(NVDA - Free Report) ] isn’t out for a couple weeks.) The next big economic report on the calendar is the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which releases next week.

Once the smoked cleared from last week, we saw new highs in the S&P 500 on an up-week overall across indices. We’re starting this week in the pre-market giving some of that back — the Dow is -100 points at this hour, the S&P 500 is -14 and the Nasdaq is -30 points currently. Not that we won’t see sunnier skies as the day moves on, but there aren’t a lot of opportunities for bulls to take back the reins.

After today’s open, we’ll get January results for S&P Services PMI and ISM Services. Both are expected to remain above the important level of 50, which determines growth versus loss. Also, Fed Presidents Austan Goolsbee from Chicago and Raphael Bostic from Atlanta will make appearances today, helping explain the Fed’s thinking following the latest FOMC meeting where the monetary policy body did not move on interest rates yet again. Is a March rate cut still under consideration? Analysts will be parsing these answers.

In fact, this week is rife with Fed members speaking publicly: Loretta Mester from Cleveland, Neel Kashkari from Minneapolis, Susan Collins from Boston and Patrick Harker from Philadelphia will all add their voices to the mix Tuesday. Then, Fed Governors Adriana Kluger and Michelle Bowman speak Wednesday, and Friday brings us Dallas’ Lorie Logan. By the end of he week, we hope to know whether March is still on the table for a cut or whether we should focus on the April/May meeting, instead. The Fed funds rate has remained 5.25-5.50% for the past six months.

Estee Lauder (EL - Free Report) shares are up more than +17% this morning on fiscal Q2 earnings results ahead of today’s bell. Earnings of 88 cents per share blew past the 55 cents in the Zacks consensus, while $4.28 billion surpassed the $4.19 billion expected. Guidance was a tad light, especially considering these outperformances, but part of the surge in stock price has to do with the company announcing company layoffs of 3-5% of its workforce, which should result in meaningful cost savings. (Shares of Estee Lauder are still down big — nearly -50% — from one year ago.)

McDonald’s (MCD - Free Report) also beat bottom-line expectations in its Q4 report out this morning, with earnings of $2.95 per share outpaced the $2.81 consensus by +5%, while revenues in the quarter came in at $6.41 billion. This missed estimates by roughly -1%, explained this morning as a result of unrest in the Middle East having a negative effect on McDonald’s sales, worldwide. Shares are down -3% in today’s pre-market, now flat year to date. For more on MCD’s earnings, click here.

Caterpillar (CAT - Free Report) posted similar Q4 results this morning, outperforming nicely on its bottom line — earnings of $5.23 per share sped by the $4.76 anticipated — while $17.07 billion in quarterly sales was -0.45% below expectations. This is now the third-straight quarterly earnings beat for the heavy machinery manufacturer, and early market participants are rewarding investors, sending shares up +5.6% and adding to the strong gains of +13% so far year to date. For more on CAT’s earnings, click here.

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