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Marriott (MAR) Gears Up for Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?
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Marriott International, Inc. (MAR - Free Report) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 13, 2024, before the opening bell. In the previous quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.5%.
Trend in Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter bottom line is pegged at $2.12 per share, indicating growth of 8.2% from $1.96 reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $6.32 billion, suggesting growth of 6.8% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
Let's look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.
Key Factors to Note
Marriott’s fourth-quarter results are likely to be aided by robust RevPAR, occupancy and ADR. The company continues to benefit from robust leisure demand and strong global booking. Growth in international markets is likely to have been aided by robust performance in Europe and Asia Pacific.
Owing to an increase in RevPAR, unit growth and higher co-branded credit card fees, Marriott anticipates gross fee revenues in the range of $1,185-$1,215 million, up from the previous quarter’s reported value of $1,131 million. For the to-be-reported quarter, our model predicts gross fee revenues to be $1.2 billion, up 6.1% from a year ago.
For the fourth quarter, MAR projects worldwide system-wide RevPAR to increase 6-7.5% from the prior-year levels. RevPAR in the United States and Canada is expected to rise 3-4% from the year-earlier actuals. International RevPAR is suggested in the range of 14-16%. It anticipates worldwide system-wide RevPAR in 2023 to increase 14-15% from the year-ago figures compared with the previous expectation of 12-14% growth.
We expect RevPAR in worldwide, international, and U.S. and Canada markets to grow 7.5% to $122.3, 15.9% to $199.4 and 3.7% to $122.9, respectively, from the prior-year actuals. We also forecast Asia Pacific RevPAR to grow 15.4% to $126.9 from the year-earlier levels.
For the fourth quarter, our model also predicts the total number of rooms to increase 4.3% to 1,591,660 units from a year ago.
However, inflationary pressures are likely to have hurt margin in the quarter to be reported. Our model suggests adjusted operating margin to be 15.3% compared with 15.6% in the prior-year quarter.
Marriott International, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Marriott this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for MAR is +1.72%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: MAR currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Other Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings
Here are some other companies in the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector, which, according to our model, also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.
SIX is expected to register a 15.6% decrease in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. It reported better-than-expected earnings in one of the trailing four quarters and missed on other three occasions, the average miss being 9.3%.
Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.67% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
H’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decrease 85.1%. It reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on other two occasions, the average surprise being 174.9%.
Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.48% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
CHH’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 7.1%. It reported better-than-expected earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on the remaining occasion, the average surprise being 5.2%.
Image: Shutterstock
Marriott (MAR) Gears Up for Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?
Marriott International, Inc. (MAR - Free Report) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 13, 2024, before the opening bell. In the previous quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.5%.
Trend in Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter bottom line is pegged at $2.12 per share, indicating growth of 8.2% from $1.96 reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $6.32 billion, suggesting growth of 6.8% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
Let's look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.
Key Factors to Note
Marriott’s fourth-quarter results are likely to be aided by robust RevPAR, occupancy and ADR. The company continues to benefit from robust leisure demand and strong global booking. Growth in international markets is likely to have been aided by robust performance in Europe and Asia Pacific.
Owing to an increase in RevPAR, unit growth and higher co-branded credit card fees, Marriott anticipates gross fee revenues in the range of $1,185-$1,215 million, up from the previous quarter’s reported value of $1,131 million. For the to-be-reported quarter, our model predicts gross fee revenues to be $1.2 billion, up 6.1% from a year ago.
For the fourth quarter, MAR projects worldwide system-wide RevPAR to increase 6-7.5% from the prior-year levels. RevPAR in the United States and Canada is expected to rise 3-4% from the year-earlier actuals. International RevPAR is suggested in the range of 14-16%. It anticipates worldwide system-wide RevPAR in 2023 to increase 14-15% from the year-ago figures compared with the previous expectation of 12-14% growth.
We expect RevPAR in worldwide, international, and U.S. and Canada markets to grow 7.5% to $122.3, 15.9% to $199.4 and 3.7% to $122.9, respectively, from the prior-year actuals. We also forecast Asia Pacific RevPAR to grow 15.4% to $126.9 from the year-earlier levels.
For the fourth quarter, our model also predicts the total number of rooms to increase 4.3% to 1,591,660 units from a year ago.
However, inflationary pressures are likely to have hurt margin in the quarter to be reported. Our model suggests adjusted operating margin to be 15.3% compared with 15.6% in the prior-year quarter.
Marriott International, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Marriott International, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Marriott International, Inc. Quote
What Our Model Indicates
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Marriott this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for MAR is +1.72%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: MAR currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Other Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings
Here are some other companies in the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector, which, according to our model, also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.
Six Flags Entertainment Corporation (SIX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +21.85% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
SIX is expected to register a 15.6% decrease in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. It reported better-than-expected earnings in one of the trailing four quarters and missed on other three occasions, the average miss being 9.3%.
Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.67% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
H’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decrease 85.1%. It reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on other two occasions, the average surprise being 174.9%.
Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.48% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
CHH’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 7.1%. It reported better-than-expected earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on the remaining occasion, the average surprise being 5.2%.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.