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Barrick (GOLD) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2023 results before the opening bell on Feb 14.

The gold mining giant surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average being 15.4%. It posted an earnings surprise of 14.3% in the last reported quarter. The company’s fourth-quarter results are expected to have benefited from sequentially higher gold production and prices. However, higher costs are likely to have affected its performance.

The stock is down 18.2% in the past year compared with the industry’s 6.9% decline.


Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research


Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.


What Do the Estimates Say?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter consolidated revenues for Barrick is currently pegged at $3,131.6 million, which calls for a rise of around 12.9% year over year.

Some Factors to Watch For

Higher gold production is likely have aided the company’s performance in the quarter to be reported. Barrick, last month, said that its preliminary gold production in the fourth quarter was higher than the third quarter, representing the highest quarter for the year. Production was driven by notable contributions from Cortez, Phoenix and Pueblo Viejo. This was partly offset by lower production at Loulo-Gounkoto. In terms of copper production, preliminary fourth-quarter production remained consistent with the third quarter across all three sites.

Our estimate for the attributable gold production is pegged at 1,195, 000 ounces for the quarter to be reported, which suggests a 15% increase on a sequential basis. The same for copper production is pegged at 134 million pounds, reflecting a sequential increase of 19.6%.

The company’s performance in the December quarter is likely to have been impacted by higher costs. GOLD expects fourth-quarter gold cost of sales per ounce to be 6-8% higher compared with third-quarter levels, with total cash costs per ounce and all-in sustaining costs per ounce anticipated to be 7-9% and 8-10% higher, respectively.

Meanwhile, gold had a solid fourth quarter on the back of strong safe-haven buying due to geopolitical tensions in Israel. Gold prices hit an all-time high in early December, surpassing $2,100 per ounce for the first time on expectations of U.S. monetary policy easing and a weak U.S. dollar. Prices were also supported by the Israel-Hamas conflict, which boosted the demand for safe-haven assets. Prices of the yellow metal eventually racked up a solid gain of roughly 11% for the December quarter.

The impacts of higher gold prices are expected to reflect on Barrick’s performance in the fourth quarter. Our estimate for average realized price of gold is $1,969 per ounce for the quarter, reflecting a sequential rise of 2.1% and a year-over-year increase of 13.9%.


Barrick Gold Corporation Price and EPS Surprise


Barrick Gold Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Barrick Gold Corporation price-eps-surprise | Barrick Gold Corporation Quote


Zacks Model

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Barrick this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP  and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Barrick is -1.59%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 21 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Barrick currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Nutrien Ltd. (NTR - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Feb 21, has an Earnings ESP of +11.78% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for NTR’s earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 72 cents.

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on Feb 15, has an Earnings ESP of +5.42% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

The consensus mark for AEM’s fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 46 cents.

Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) , scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 14, has an Earnings ESP of +13.51%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross' earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 9 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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