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What's in the Cards for Medtronic (MDT) in Q3 Earnings?

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Medtronic plc (MDT - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter fiscal 2024 results on Feb 20, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.9%. Medtronic surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 4.46%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to this announcement.

Factors at Play

Similar to the last few quarters, Medtronic's business is expected to have registered growth. The upside is likely to have been fueled by growth across multiple businesses and geographies and innovative product introductions.

In cardiac rhythm management within the broader Cardiovascular segment, MDT continues to outperform the market, banking on strong global growth of its Micra leadless pacemaker family as it enters new geographies and expands penetration in existing markets. In pacing, its micro-leadless pacemaker franchise is likely to have registered growth driven by the U.S. launch of its next-generation micro AV2 and VR2 devices. ICDs (Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator) within cardiac rhythm management are gaining in terms of market share following the latest CE Mark for Aurora Extravascular ICD. We believe these developments to have boosted its third-quarter revenues.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Cardiovascular segment's revenues is pegged at $2.87 billion, suggesting growth of 3.7% from the year-ago reported figure.

Within Medtronic’s Neuroscience portfolio, the Cranial Spinal technologies business registered robust growth in recent quarters. This segment is likely to have benefited from increased sales of Spine & Biologics products in the United States based on the continued adoption of the Aible spinal ecosystem.

Its ENT business within the Specialty Therapies division in the Neuroscience portfolio continues to contribute positively. Further, the Specialty Therapies business is also gaining from the strong performances of the company’s hemorrhagic stroke flow diversion products.

In Neuromodulation, MDT is gaining new implant share in both pain Stim and DBS (Deep Brain Stimulation). In DBS, customers value the differentiated sensing capabilities of Percept PC system with Medtronic’s SenSight directional lead. We expect these trends to have continued through the fiscal third quarter, thus adding to the top line.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Neuroscience segment’s revenues is pegged at $2.31 billion for the fiscal third quarter, suggesting growth of 2.9% from the year-ago reported figure.

Within Medtronic’s MedSurg portfolios, the rollout of differentiated Hugo robotic systems in many international markets and the United States will likely drive revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. Recently, it also received FDA nod to start the U.S. Hernia indication pivotal trial for Hugo, which is likely to have contributed to its growth in the quarter under review. Medtronic is likely to have registered strong performance within the Endoscopy subsegment, primarily driven by improved supply and continued growth in GI Genius and PillCam in the third quarter of fiscal 2024.

In December 2023, Medtronic entered into a definitive agreement to expand its partnership with Cosmo Intelligent Medical Devices, a subsidiary of Cosmo Pharmaceuticals. Through this AI-driven collaboration, GI GeniusTM's intelligent endoscopy module successes will be furthered, providing scalable healthcare improvements and ongoing innovation to patients and caregivers worldwide. We believe this development to have boosted the company’s revenues in the fiscal third quarter.

Medtronic PLC Price and EPS Surprise

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the MedSurg segment’s revenues is pegged at $2.16 billion for the fiscal third quarter, suggesting growth of 0.8% from the year-ago reported figure.

In Diabetes, Medtronic continues to see significant growth in markets outside the United States, led by increasing user base of MiniMed 780G insulin pump combined with Guardian 4 sensor. During fiscal second quarter, the company witnessed robust growth driven by recurring revenues from CGM and consumable sales to customers that have adopted AID technology in international markets. In the United States also, it witnessed strong growth.  We believe this trend to have continued through fiscal third-quarter owing to strong customer adoption.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Diabetes segment’s revenues is pegged at $598 million for the fiscal third quarter, suggesting growth of 4.9% from the year-ago reported figure.

Q3 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total revenues of $7.95 billion suggests a 2.9% rise from the prior-year reported number. The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $1.26 per share, suggesting a 3.1% decline from the year-ago reported figure.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Medtronic this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Medtronic has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Medtronic currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks Worth a Look

Here are some medical stocks worth considering, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming release.

GoodRx (GDRX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +15.91% and a Zacks Rank #2. It is expected to release fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 29. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

GDRX has an expected earnings growth rate of 14.3% compared with S&P 500’s 4.9%. GDRX’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and matched once, the average beat being 18.3%.

Merit Medical Systems (MMSI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.30% and a Zacks Rank #2. It is expected to release fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 28.

MMSI has an expected earnings growth rate of 10.4% compared with S&P 500’s 4.9%. Its earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 14.41%.

Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +580.69% and a Zacks Rank #2. It is expected to release fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 27.

SRPT has an expected earnings growth rate of 132.6% compared with the industry’s 11.1%. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 72.3%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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