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Exact Sciences (EXAS) to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Exact Sciences (EXAS - Free Report) is slated to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 earnings on Feb 21.

Exact Sciences is a leading cancer diagnostics company, which focuses on the development of new and innovative tests for the prevention of cancer through early detection. The company’s portfolio of FDA-approved flagship cancer screening and diagnostics tests includes Cologuard and Oncotype DX.

Let us see how things have shaped up for the quarter to be reported.

Factors to Consider

Exact Sciences reports its revenues under three segments — Screening, Precision Oncology and COVID-19 testing.

In January, the company reported its preliminary fourth-quarter 2023 figures. EXAS expects total revenues in the band of $645.5-$647.5 million, indicating an increase of 17% year over year (18% excluding COVID-19 testing).

Screening revenues are expected in the band of $486-$487 million (up 21% year over year). The uptick is likely to have been driven by higher laboratory service revenues from Cologuard and Prevention Genetics tests. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is pegged at $474 million.

Precision Oncology revenues are anticipated between $159.5 million and $160.5 million (up 12% year over year). Revenues in this segment are likely to have been boosted by laboratory service revenues from global Oncotype DX and therapy selection tests. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues under this segment is pegged at $155 million.

Exact Sciences hasn’t recorded any revenues under the COVID-19 testing segment in the previous quarter as the pandemic has ended. This trend is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter as well.

The company also shared its preliminary full-year 2023 results. It expects total revenues in the range of $2,498.5-$2,500.5 million, suggesting an increase of 20% (23% excluding COVID-19 testing) from the 2022 figure.

Screening revenues in 2023 are expected between $1,864 million and $1,865 million (up 31% year over year), while Precision Oncology revenues during the same time frame are anticipated in the band of $628.5-$629.5 million (up 5% year over year).

COVID-19 testing revenues in 2023 are expected to be approximately $6 million, suggesting a decrease of 90% from the year-ago figure.

In the same press release, the company also announced that it has submitted the final module of the next-generation Cologuard premarket approval application to the FDA in the fourth quarter of 2023. Updates regarding the same are also expected in the upcoming earnings release.

Earnings Surprise History

Exact Sciences has an impeccable earnings surprise history so far. The company beat earnings estimates in each of the last four trailing quarters, delivering an average earnings surprise of 44.21%.

In the past year, shares of EXAS have lost 2.6% compared with the industry’s 13.3% decline.

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Earnings Whisper

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Exact Sciences this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, that is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Exact Sciences currently has an Earnings ESP of -6.33%.

Zacks Rank: EXAS currently sports a Zacks Rank #1.

Exact Sciences Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Exact Sciences Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Exact Sciences Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Exact Sciences Corporation Quote

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks in the same industry that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. (NTLA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +31.10% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Shares of Intellia Therapeutics have plunged 29% in the past year. NTLA beat earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters, met the same once and missed on the remaining occasion. Intellia Therapeutics delivered an earnings surprise of 5.04%, on average.

Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +37.55% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Moderna’s stock has plunged 50.1% in the past year. MRNA beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed on one occasion. Moderna delivered an earnings surprise of 31.2%, on average. The company is slated to report its fourth-quarter earnings results on Feb 22.

BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +30.45% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Shares of BioMarin have lost 19.8% in the past year. BMRN beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed on one occasion. BioMarin delivered an earnings surprise of 11.68%, on average. The company is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings results on Feb 22.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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