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The fertilizer maker delivered a negative earnings surprise of 28.1%, on average, over the trailing four quarters. It posted a negative earnings surprise of 50.7% in the last reported quarter. The company’s fourth-quarter performance will likely reflect the benefits of healthy demand for fertilizers. However, weaker fertilizer prices are expected to have affected its performance.
The company’s shares have lost 31.6% in the past year compared with the industry’s 33.5% decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
Zacks Model
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Nutrien this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earning beat.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Nutrien is +39.72%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 72 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Nutrien currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
What do the Estimates Indicate?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nutrien’s fourth-quarter consolidated sales is currently pegged at $5,243.1 million, calling for a decline of 30.4% from the year-ago quarter’s tally.
Our estimate for sales in the Nutrien Ag Solutions segment currently stands at $2,667 million, suggesting a 34.7% year-over-year decline. The same for net sales in the Phosphates segment is currently pegged at $626 million, calling for a year-over-year rise of 10.6%.
Our estimate for net sales in the Potash segment is currently pegged at $708 million, suggesting a year-over-year decline of 51.4%. The same for net sales in the Nitrogen segment is currently pegged at $1,620 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of 16.9%.
A Few Factors to Watch
NTR is likely to have benefited from healthy demand for fertilizers in the December quarter, backed by the strength in the global agricultural market. It is expected to have gained from strong potash volumes on the back of solid crop nutrient demand in North America.
Nutrien is also likely to have gained from acquisitions, cost efficiency and increased adoption of its digital platform. Cost and operational efficiency initiatives are expected to have aided its performance. It remains focused on lowering the cost of production in the potash business. Lower natural gas costs are also likely to have contributed to a decline in its cost of goods sold in the fourth quarter.
However, weaker fertilizer prices are likely to have weighed on Nutrien’s fourth-quarter performance. Prices of phosphate and potash have retreated since the second half of 2022 from their peak levels attained in the first half riding on the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war and disruptions due to the sanctions in Belarus. Global nitrogen prices have declined since the beginning of 2023 driven by a rise in global supply availability. Lower prices are expected to have hurt NTR’s profitability.
Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
The consensus estimate for ERO’s earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 26 cents.
Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on Feb 22, has an Earnings ESP of +5.88% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
The consensus mark for EGO’s fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 21 cents.
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV - Free Report) , scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Mar 5, has an Earnings ESP of +0.63%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FNV's earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 80 cents. FNV currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Image: Bigstock
Nutrien (NTR) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR - Free Report) is set to release fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 21, after the closing bell.
The fertilizer maker delivered a negative earnings surprise of 28.1%, on average, over the trailing four quarters. It posted a negative earnings surprise of 50.7% in the last reported quarter. The company’s fourth-quarter performance will likely reflect the benefits of healthy demand for fertilizers. However, weaker fertilizer prices are expected to have affected its performance.
The company’s shares have lost 31.6% in the past year compared with the industry’s 33.5% decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
Zacks Model
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Nutrien this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earning beat.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Nutrien is +39.72%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 72 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Nutrien currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
What do the Estimates Indicate?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nutrien’s fourth-quarter consolidated sales is currently pegged at $5,243.1 million, calling for a decline of 30.4% from the year-ago quarter’s tally.
Our estimate for sales in the Nutrien Ag Solutions segment currently stands at $2,667 million, suggesting a 34.7% year-over-year decline. The same for net sales in the Phosphates segment is currently pegged at $626 million, calling for a year-over-year rise of 10.6%.
Our estimate for net sales in the Potash segment is currently pegged at $708 million, suggesting a year-over-year decline of 51.4%. The same for net sales in the Nitrogen segment is currently pegged at $1,620 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of 16.9%.
A Few Factors to Watch
NTR is likely to have benefited from healthy demand for fertilizers in the December quarter, backed by the strength in the global agricultural market. It is expected to have gained from strong potash volumes on the back of solid crop nutrient demand in North America.
Nutrien is also likely to have gained from acquisitions, cost efficiency and increased adoption of its digital platform. Cost and operational efficiency initiatives are expected to have aided its performance. It remains focused on lowering the cost of production in the potash business. Lower natural gas costs are also likely to have contributed to a decline in its cost of goods sold in the fourth quarter.
However, weaker fertilizer prices are likely to have weighed on Nutrien’s fourth-quarter performance. Prices of phosphate and potash have retreated since the second half of 2022 from their peak levels attained in the first half riding on the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war and disruptions due to the sanctions in Belarus. Global nitrogen prices have declined since the beginning of 2023 driven by a rise in global supply availability. Lower prices are expected to have hurt NTR’s profitability.
Nutrien Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise
Nutrien Ltd. price-eps-surprise | Nutrien Ltd. Quote
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
Ero Copper Corp. (ERO - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Mar 7, has an Earnings ESP of +10.68% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The consensus estimate for ERO’s earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 26 cents.
Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on Feb 22, has an Earnings ESP of +5.88% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
The consensus mark for EGO’s fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 21 cents.
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV - Free Report) , scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Mar 5, has an Earnings ESP of +0.63%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FNV's earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 80 cents. FNV currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.