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Moderna (MRNA) Gears Up for Q4 Earnings: Will It Top Estimates?
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We expect Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results on Feb 22, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 30.85%.
Factors to Note
During the fourth quarter, sales of COVID-19 vaccines are likely to have declined significantly due to lower demand. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter product sales is pegged at $2.45 billion.
Due to the substantial fall in COVID-19 vaccine sales compared with previous quarters’ levels, we expect Moderna to post a quarterly loss in the to-be-reported quarter.
Investors would also be interested in Moderna’s progress with its pipeline. The company is developing 45 mRNA-based investigational candidates in different stages of clinical studies, targeting various indications, including cancer. Moderna is evaluating multiple candidates in late-stage studies — mRNA-1647 [cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine], mRNA-1010 (influenza vaccine), mRNA-4157/V940 [individualized neoantigen therapy (INT)] and mRNA-1083 (COVID-19 plus influenza combination vaccine).
In October, Moderna initiated a phase III study on mRNA-1083, its investigational combination vaccine against influenza and COVID-19. The study will compare mRNA-1083 to co-administered licensed influenza and COVID-19 vaccines in two independent age-group sub-study cohorts involving 4,000 adults aged 50 to less than 65 years of age and another 4,000 adults aged 65 years and older. Management intends to market this combination vaccine by 2025.
In December, Moderna and partner Merck (MRK - Free Report) initiated the phase III INTerpath-002 study on mRNA-4157 in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) indication. The study is evaluating the INT combined with Merck’s blockbuster immuno-oncology drug Keytruda as an adjuvant treatment in adults with completely resected Stage II, IIIA or IIIB (with nodal involvement [N2]) NSCLC compared with Keytruda alone. The study started global recruitment, enrolling the first participants in Australia.
The INTerpath-002 study is Moderna/Merck’s second clinical study in the INTerpath program evaluating mRNA-4157 in multiple cancer indications. Last year in July, Moderna/Merck initiated the phase III INTerpath-001 study evaluating mRNA-4157 plus Keytruda in melanoma patients. Over time, Moderna/Merck intend to expand mRNA-4157 in other oncology indications.
Moderna also generates collaboration revenues from partners who use its mRNA technology to develop therapies targeting different indications. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for fourth-quarter collaboration revenues are pegged at $18.1 million and $10.0 million, respectively.
Earnings Surprise History
The company’s surprise history has been mixed, with earnings beating estimates in three of the trailing four quarters while missing on one occasion. The average surprise is 31.20%.
Moderna’s shares have declined 11.1% year to date against the industry’s 1.2% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Moderna this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Moderna’s Earnings ESP is 37.55% as the Most Accurate Estimate of a loss of 51 cents is narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 82 cents.
Here are some biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +25.58% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Arcutis’ stock has surged 187.9% year to date. ARQT beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing the mark on one occasion. On average, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 9.23% in the last four quarters. Arcutis is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb 27, before market open.
Cullinan Oncology (CGEM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.04% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Cullinan’s stock has risen 78.9% year to date. CGEM beat earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed the mark on one occasion while meeting the mark on another. On average, the company witnessed a negative earnings surprise of 10.66% in the last four quarters.
Image: Shutterstock
Moderna (MRNA) Gears Up for Q4 Earnings: Will It Top Estimates?
We expect Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results on Feb 22, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 30.85%.
Factors to Note
During the fourth quarter, sales of COVID-19 vaccines are likely to have declined significantly due to lower demand. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter product sales is pegged at $2.45 billion.
Due to the substantial fall in COVID-19 vaccine sales compared with previous quarters’ levels, we expect Moderna to post a quarterly loss in the to-be-reported quarter.
Investors would also be interested in Moderna’s progress with its pipeline. The company is developing 45 mRNA-based investigational candidates in different stages of clinical studies, targeting various indications, including cancer. Moderna is evaluating multiple candidates in late-stage studies — mRNA-1647 [cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine], mRNA-1010 (influenza vaccine), mRNA-4157/V940 [individualized neoantigen therapy (INT)] and mRNA-1083 (COVID-19 plus influenza combination vaccine).
In October, Moderna initiated a phase III study on mRNA-1083, its investigational combination vaccine against influenza and COVID-19. The study will compare mRNA-1083 to co-administered licensed influenza and COVID-19 vaccines in two independent age-group sub-study cohorts involving 4,000 adults aged 50 to less than 65 years of age and another 4,000 adults aged 65 years and older. Management intends to market this combination vaccine by 2025.
In December, Moderna and partner Merck (MRK - Free Report) initiated the phase III INTerpath-002 study on mRNA-4157 in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) indication. The study is evaluating the INT combined with Merck’s blockbuster immuno-oncology drug Keytruda as an adjuvant treatment in adults with completely resected Stage II, IIIA or IIIB (with nodal involvement [N2]) NSCLC compared with Keytruda alone. The study started global recruitment, enrolling the first participants in Australia.
The INTerpath-002 study is Moderna/Merck’s second clinical study in the INTerpath program evaluating mRNA-4157 in multiple cancer indications. Last year in July, Moderna/Merck initiated the phase III INTerpath-001 study evaluating mRNA-4157 plus Keytruda in melanoma patients. Over time, Moderna/Merck intend to expand mRNA-4157 in other oncology indications.
Moderna also generates collaboration revenues from partners who use its mRNA technology to develop therapies targeting different indications. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for fourth-quarter collaboration revenues are pegged at $18.1 million and $10.0 million, respectively.
Earnings Surprise History
The company’s surprise history has been mixed, with earnings beating estimates in three of the trailing four quarters while missing on one occasion. The average surprise is 31.20%.
Moderna, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Moderna, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Moderna, Inc. Quote
Moderna’s shares have declined 11.1% year to date against the industry’s 1.2% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Moderna this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Moderna’s Earnings ESP is 37.55% as the Most Accurate Estimate of a loss of 51 cents is narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 82 cents.
Zacks Rank: Moderna has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +25.58% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Arcutis’ stock has surged 187.9% year to date. ARQT beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing the mark on one occasion. On average, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 9.23% in the last four quarters. Arcutis is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb 27, before market open.
Cullinan Oncology (CGEM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.04% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Cullinan’s stock has risen 78.9% year to date. CGEM beat earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed the mark on one occasion while meeting the mark on another. On average, the company witnessed a negative earnings surprise of 10.66% in the last four quarters.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.