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Suncor's (SU) Q4 Earnings Preview: Key Things to Consider
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Suncor Energy (SU - Free Report) is set to release fourth-quarter results on Feb 21. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of 79 cents per share on revenues of $8.5 billion.
Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the Canadian energy giant’s performance in the December quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at SU’s previous-quarter performance first.
Highlights of Q3 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, this Calgary, Alberta-based operator beat the consensus mark on higher-than-expected daily production volumes. SU had reported earnings per share of $1.13, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 88 cents. Revenues of $9.4 billion generated by the firm also came in 15% above the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
SU beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, which resulted in an earnings surprise of 15.7%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter bottom line has remained unchanged in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 40.6% fall year over year. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues suggests a 17.1% increase from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider
Suncor Energy is expected to have benefited from higher output during the quarter. Considering SU’s significant oil sands and conventional production platforms, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fourth-quarter volume is pegged at some 795,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d), up from the prior-quarter level of 787,000 BOE/d.
On a further positive note, the improvement in Suncor Energy’s downstream operations might have buoyed up its to-be-reported bottom line. In particular, the consensus mark for total refined product sales is pegged at 572,000 barrels per day, indicating a 4.4% increase from 548,000 barrels per day reported in the year-ago quarter. The upward trajectory could be attributed to SU’s strong performance across the entire refining network.
On a somewhat bearish note, lower year-over-year oil realizations might have dampened some of the positive impacts. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in October, November and December 2022, the average monthly WTI crude price was $87.55, $84.37 and $76.44 per barrel, respectively. Average prices were $85.64 in October, $77.69 in November and $71.90 in December last year, i.e., weaker year over year. This price drop is likely to have pulled down the revenues and cash flows of Suncor Energy.
What Does Our Model Say?
The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that Suncor Energy is likely to beat estimates in the fourth quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is +0.64%.
Zacks Rank: SU currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Stocks to Consider
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Suncor Energy, here are some firms that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:
Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.80% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 22.
The 2024 Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ardelyx indicates 17.1% year-over-year earnings per share growth. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 160.6%, on average. Valued at around $2.1 billion, ARDX has surged 197.4% in a year.
Inter Parfums, Inc. (IPAR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.71% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 27.
The 2024 Zacks Consensus Estimate for Inter Parfums indicates 8.6% year-over-year earnings per share growth. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 45.7%, on average. Valued at around $4.9 billion, IPAR has gained 28.6% in a year.
Cheniere Energy (LNG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.55% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 22.
Cheniere Energy beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 92%, on average. Valued at around $38.2 billion, LNG has gained 10.7% in a year.
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Suncor's (SU) Q4 Earnings Preview: Key Things to Consider
Suncor Energy (SU - Free Report) is set to release fourth-quarter results on Feb 21. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of 79 cents per share on revenues of $8.5 billion.
Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the Canadian energy giant’s performance in the December quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at SU’s previous-quarter performance first.
Highlights of Q3 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, this Calgary, Alberta-based operator beat the consensus mark on higher-than-expected daily production volumes. SU had reported earnings per share of $1.13, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 88 cents. Revenues of $9.4 billion generated by the firm also came in 15% above the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
SU beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, which resulted in an earnings surprise of 15.7%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:
Suncor Energy Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Suncor Energy Inc. price-eps-surprise | Suncor Energy Inc. Quote
Trend in Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter bottom line has remained unchanged in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 40.6% fall year over year. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues suggests a 17.1% increase from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider
Suncor Energy is expected to have benefited from higher output during the quarter. Considering SU’s significant oil sands and conventional production platforms, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fourth-quarter volume is pegged at some 795,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d), up from the prior-quarter level of 787,000 BOE/d.
On a further positive note, the improvement in Suncor Energy’s downstream operations might have buoyed up its to-be-reported bottom line. In particular, the consensus mark for total refined product sales is pegged at 572,000 barrels per day, indicating a 4.4% increase from 548,000 barrels per day reported in the year-ago quarter. The upward trajectory could be attributed to SU’s strong performance across the entire refining network.
On a somewhat bearish note, lower year-over-year oil realizations might have dampened some of the positive impacts. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in October, November and December 2022, the average monthly WTI crude price was $87.55, $84.37 and $76.44 per barrel, respectively. Average prices were $85.64 in October, $77.69 in November and $71.90 in December last year, i.e., weaker year over year. This price drop is likely to have pulled down the revenues and cash flows of Suncor Energy.
What Does Our Model Say?
The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that Suncor Energy is likely to beat estimates in the fourth quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is +0.64%.
Zacks Rank: SU currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Stocks to Consider
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Suncor Energy, here are some firms that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:
Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.80% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 22.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The 2024 Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ardelyx indicates 17.1% year-over-year earnings per share growth. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 160.6%, on average. Valued at around $2.1 billion, ARDX has surged 197.4% in a year.
Inter Parfums, Inc. (IPAR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.71% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 27.
The 2024 Zacks Consensus Estimate for Inter Parfums indicates 8.6% year-over-year earnings per share growth. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 45.7%, on average. Valued at around $4.9 billion, IPAR has gained 28.6% in a year.
Cheniere Energy (LNG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.55% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 22.
Cheniere Energy beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 92%, on average. Valued at around $38.2 billion, LNG has gained 10.7% in a year.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.