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NVR, Inc. (NVR) Hits Fresh High: Is There Still Room to Run?

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Have you been paying attention to shares of NVR (NVR - Free Report) ? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 6.5% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $7628.54 in the previous session. NVR has gained 8.1% since the start of the year compared to the 6.4% move for the Zacks Construction sector and the 2.5% return for the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry.

What's Driving the Outperformance?

The stock has an impressive record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on January 30, 2024, NVR reported EPS of $121.56 versus consensus estimate of $118.63 while it missed the consensus revenue estimate by 7.22%.

For the current fiscal year, NVR is expected to post earnings of $484.48 per share on $10.04 billion in revenues. This represents a 4.57% change in EPS on a 7.73% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $492.91 per share on $10.46 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 1.74% and 4.24%, respectively.

Valuation Metrics

NVR may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.

On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as these give investors a variety of ways to comb through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. Investors should consider the style scores a valuable tool that can help you to pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.

NVR has a Value Score of D. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are B and B, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of B.

In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 15.6X current fiscal year EPS estimates, which is a premium to the peer industry average of 9X. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 15X versus its peer group's average of 8.4X. Additionally, the stock has a PEG ratio of 3.54. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.

Zacks Rank

We also need to consider the stock's Zacks Rank, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, NVR currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy) thanks to favorable earnings estimate revisions from covering analysts.

Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if NVR meets the list of requirements. Thus, it seems as though NVR shares could have a bit more room to run in the near term.

How Does NVR Stack Up to the Competition?

Shares of NVR have been soaring, and the company still appears to be a decent choice, but what about the rest of the industry? One industry peer that looks good is Lennar Corporation (LEN - Free Report) . LEN has a Zacks Rank of # 2 (Buy) and a Value Score of A, a Growth Score of A, and a Momentum Score of F.

Earnings were strong last quarter. Lennar Corporation beat our consensus estimate by 11.42%, and for the current fiscal year, LEN is expected to post earnings of $14.36 per share on revenue of $36.09 billion.

Shares of Lennar Corporation have gained 3.1% over the past month, and currently trade at a forward P/E of 10.73X and a P/CF of 10.32X.

The Building Products - Home Builders industry is in the top 11% of all the industries we have in our universe, so it looks like there are some nice tailwinds for NVR and LEN, even beyond their own solid fundamental situation.


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