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Why Is Hawaiian Holdings (HA) Down 2.1% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Hawaiian Holdings (HA - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 2.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Hawaiian Holdings due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Wider-Than-Expected Loss in Q4

Hawaiian Holdings posted fourth-quarter 2023 loss (excluding 41 cents from non-recurring items) of $2.37 per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $2.35. In the year-ago quarter HA posted a loss of $1.06.

Quarterly revenues of $669.1 million fell 8.5% year over year but met the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Quarterly revenues were hurt by a devastating wildfire in Lahaina in West Maui, which, in turn, affected traffic.

Notably, passenger revenues accounted for 89.9% of the top line in fourth-quarter 2023.

Scheduled airline traffic (measured by revenue passenger miles) increased 5.9% year over year. Scheduled capacity (measured in available seat miles or ASM) rose 3.4% year over year to 5.1 billion. Passenger load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) improved to 82.7% from 80.8% reported a year ago.

Passenger revenue per ASM or PRASM decreased to 11.79 cents, witnessing a year-over-year fall of 10.7%. Operating revenue per ASM (RASM) fell by 11.4% on a year-over-year basis.

Average fuel cost per gallon (economic) decreased 10% year over year to $2.98 in the fourth quarter.  Operating cost per ASM or CASM, excluding aircraft fuel and non-recurring items, inched down 1% year over year to 15.30 cents at fourth-quarter 2023 end.


As of Dec 31, 2023, the company had unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of $0.9 billion, and outstanding debt and finance lease obligations of $1.7 billion.

Q1 2024 Outlook

RASM is expected to go down to 1-2% from first-quarter 2023 figures.

Capacity is anticipated to increase 2.5-5.5% from the year-ago levels.

Costs per ASM (excluding fuel & non-recurring items) are suggested to climb 8-11% (non-GAAP figures) from the prior-year levels.

Gallons of jet fuel consumed are forecast to rise 4-7% from the year-earlier levels.

The effective tax rate is envisioned to be around 21%.

Fuel price per gallon is expected to be $2.71 by the end of first-quarter 2024.

2024 Outlook

The below expectations are in comparison with full-year 2023 actuals.

Gallons of jet fuel consumed are now suggested to increase 4-7%.    

Fuel price per gallon is anticipated to be $2.59.

ASMs are now expected to improve 6-9%.    

Capital Expenditure is still projected in the range of $500-$550 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -34.91% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Hawaiian Holdings has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.


Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Hawaiian Holdings has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Hawaiian Holdings is part of the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry. Over the past month, Ryanair (RYAAY - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 3.2%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended December 2023 more than a month ago.

Ryanair reported revenues of $2.91 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +23.1%. EPS of $0.07 for the same period compares with $0.95 a year ago.

Ryanair is expected to post a loss of $1.38 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -89%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Ryanair. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.

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