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Oshkosh (OSK) Down 0.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Oshkosh (OSK - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 0.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Oshkosh due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Oshkosh Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Dividend Hiked

Oshkosh Corporation reported fourth-quarter 2023 adjusted earnings of $2.56 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.17. The bottom line also rose from $1.60 per share recorded in the year-ago period. In the quarter under review, consolidated net sales climbed 12% year over year to $2,466.8 million. The top line, however, marginally missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,468 million.

Segmental Details

Access: The segment’s net sales rose 7.1% year over year to $1.15 billion due to enhanced sales volume, pricing strength and $15.9 million in sales related to the Hinowa acquisition. The metric missed our estimate of $1.18 billion.

Operating income rose 39.8% to $162.2 million (accounting for 14.1% of sales), owing to higher sales volume, pricing and an improved product mix. The metric, however, lagged our estimate of $172.4 million.

Defense: The segment’s net revenues increased 7.2% year over year to $586.9 million due to catch-up adjustments on contract awards. The metric missed our estimate of $609 million.

Operating income skyrocketed 205.5% from the prior-year figure to $60.8 million (10.4% of sales), owing to cumulative catch-up adjustments on contract margins. The metric also surpassed our estimate of $34.4 million.

Vocational: The segment’s net sales rose 26.1% year over year to $735.3 million due to the inclusion of sales related to AeroTech’s acquisition and higher pricing. The metric also surpassed our estimate of $672.4 million.

Operating income increased 7% to $44.4 million (accounting for 6% of sales) due to improved pricing. However, the metric missed our estimate of $45.9 million.

Financials

Oshkosh had cash and cash equivalents of $125.4 million as of Dec 31, 2023 compared with $805.9 million as of Dec 31, 2022. The company recorded a long-term debt of $597.5 million, up from $595 million on Dec 31, 2022.

OSK hiked its quarterly cash dividend to 46 cents per share. The dividend will be paid out on Feb 29, 2024, to shareholders of record as of Feb 15, 2024.

2024 Guidance

The company anticipates full-year 2024 sales to be around $10.4 billion. It expects diluted earnings of $9.45 per share and adjusted earnings of $10.25 per share.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted 21.6% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Oshkosh has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Oshkosh has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Oshkosh belongs to the Zacks Automotive - Original Equipment industry. Another stock from the same industry, Gentex (GNTX - Free Report) , has gained 10.1% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended December 2023.

Gentex reported revenues of $589.13 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +19.3%. EPS of $0.50 for the same period compares with $0.37 a year ago.

Gentex is expected to post earnings of $0.47 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +11.9%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -3.3%.

Gentex has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.


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