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Landstar (LSTR) Down 0.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Landstar System (LSTR - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 0.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Landstar due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Landstar Q4 Earnings Miss

Landstar System's fourth-quarter 2023 earnings per share of $1.62 missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny and declined 37.6% year over year. Revenues of $1,204.4 million lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,245.6 million and declined 28% year over year.

Operating income fell 40% from the prior-year quarter’s figure to $74.56million. Total costs and expenses (on a reported basis) decreased 26.9% to $1.13 billion.

Total revenues in the truck transportation segment, contributing to 90.1% of the top line, amounted to $1.09 billion, down 29.2% from the year-ago quarter’s figure. The actual figure was lower than our estimate of $1.15 billion.

Rail intermodal revenues of $24.34 million decreased 22.1% from the figure recorded in fourth-quarter 2022. The actual figure was higher than our estimate of $22.2 million.

Revenues in the ocean and air-cargo carrier segments declined 23.3% year over year to $64.28 million. The actual figure was higher than our estimate of $46.2 million.

Other revenues increased 17.6% to $30.7 million. The actual figure was higher than our estimate of $26.9 million.

Liquidity, Dividends & Buyback

At the end of fourth-quarter 2023, Landstar had cash and cash equivalents of $481.04million compared with $439.66million recorded at the prior-quarter end. Additionally, long-term debt (excluding current maturities) totaled $43.26 million at the end of the fourth quarter compared with $46.17 million at the third-quarter end. LSTR is currently authorized to purchase up to 3,000,000 shares under its previously announced share purchase programs.

Q1 Outlook

Landstar anticipates first-quarter 2024 revenues in the range of $1.10-$1.15 billion. EPS for the first quarter is estimated to be in the band of $1.25-$1.35. LSTR expects first-quarter effective income tax rate of 24.5%.

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How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -18.73% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Landstar has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Landstar has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.


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