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Big Lots (BIG) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
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Big Lots, Inc. (BIG - Free Report) is likely to witness a decline in its top line but an increase in the bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Mar 7 before market open.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BIG’s fiscal fourth-quarter bottom line is pegged at a loss of 12 cents per share. Although the estimate has widened by a couple of cents in the past seven days, it is still narrower than the loss of 28 cents per share reported in the year-earlier quarter.
The consensus mark for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1,439 million, indicating a 6.7% drop from the prior-year quarter's reported number.
This Columbus, Ohio-based player delivered an earnings surprise of 3.5%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.
Despite efforts to stimulate demand, Big Lots may have struggled to overcome broader economic factors affecting consumer spending habits, leading to a continued revenue downturn. This decline may be rooted in consumer reluctance toward high-ticket purchases, particularly in categories like furniture. Intense competition in key segments like food and consumables may have further hurt revenues. However, a 53rd week is expected to contribute approximately 400 basis points to sales.
On its last earnings call, management guided fourth-quarter comps to decline in the high-single-digit range. We expect a comps decline of 9.2% for the fourth quarter.
Although the company opened new stores, the net decrease in the store count had an unfavorable impact on sales. With store closures concentrated in the fourth quarter, this could have further contributed to a decline in revenues. We anticipate Big Lots to close 39 stores in the final quarter of fiscal 2023.
Despite the aforementioned headwinds, cost reduction initiatives and productivity efforts implemented by Big Lots could have positively impacted the bottom line. The company's focus on lowering structural SG&A expenses, optimizing inventory levels and streamlining operations through Project Springboard may have resulted in significant cost savings.
The gross margin rate for the fourth quarter might have improved, driven by reduced markdown activity, lower freight costs, and ongoing cost reduction and productivity initiatives. Our estimate for the gross margin is pegged at 38% for the quarter, implying a year-over-year improvement of 170 basis points. Moreover, we expect SG&A expenses to decline 3.3% in the final quarter.
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Big Lots this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.
Big Lots has an Earnings ESP of -55.10%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The company carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates
Here are a few companies that, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to come up with an earnings beat this reporting cycle:
GPS’ earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase by 126.7%. The consensus mark for its quarterly earnings has moved up by 1 cent to 20 cents per share in the past seven days.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Gap’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.21 billion, which suggests a fall of 0.7% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
American Eagle (AEO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.13% and currently sports a Zacks Rank #1. The company is likely to register growth in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers. The consensus mark for AEO’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at 50 cents per share in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate suggests 35.1% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for American Eagle’s quarterly revenues stands at $1.66 billion, suggesting growth of 11.2% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
Guess (GES - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.25% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is likely to register top-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $855.5 million, which indicates a decline of 4.6% from the year-ago quarter.
The consensus mark for GES’ fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 earnings per share is pegged at $1.55, suggesting a 10.9% year-over-year decline. The consensus estimate for earnings has been unchanged in the past 30 days. GES has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 43.1%, on average.
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Big Lots (BIG) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Big Lots, Inc. (BIG - Free Report) is likely to witness a decline in its top line but an increase in the bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Mar 7 before market open.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BIG’s fiscal fourth-quarter bottom line is pegged at a loss of 12 cents per share. Although the estimate has widened by a couple of cents in the past seven days, it is still narrower than the loss of 28 cents per share reported in the year-earlier quarter.
The consensus mark for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1,439 million, indicating a 6.7% drop from the prior-year quarter's reported number.
This Columbus, Ohio-based player delivered an earnings surprise of 3.5%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.
Big Lots, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Big Lots, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Big Lots, Inc. Quote
Key Factors to Note
Despite efforts to stimulate demand, Big Lots may have struggled to overcome broader economic factors affecting consumer spending habits, leading to a continued revenue downturn. This decline may be rooted in consumer reluctance toward high-ticket purchases, particularly in categories like furniture. Intense competition in key segments like food and consumables may have further hurt revenues. However, a 53rd week is expected to contribute approximately 400 basis points to sales.
On its last earnings call, management guided fourth-quarter comps to decline in the high-single-digit range. We expect a comps decline of 9.2% for the fourth quarter.
Although the company opened new stores, the net decrease in the store count had an unfavorable impact on sales. With store closures concentrated in the fourth quarter, this could have further contributed to a decline in revenues. We anticipate Big Lots to close 39 stores in the final quarter of fiscal 2023.
Despite the aforementioned headwinds, cost reduction initiatives and productivity efforts implemented by Big Lots could have positively impacted the bottom line. The company's focus on lowering structural SG&A expenses, optimizing inventory levels and streamlining operations through Project Springboard may have resulted in significant cost savings.
The gross margin rate for the fourth quarter might have improved, driven by reduced markdown activity, lower freight costs, and ongoing cost reduction and productivity initiatives. Our estimate for the gross margin is pegged at 38% for the quarter, implying a year-over-year improvement of 170 basis points. Moreover, we expect SG&A expenses to decline 3.3% in the final quarter.
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Big Lots this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.
Big Lots has an Earnings ESP of -55.10%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The company carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates
Here are a few companies that, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to come up with an earnings beat this reporting cycle:
The Gap, Inc. (GPS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +54.71% and sports a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
GPS’ earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase by 126.7%. The consensus mark for its quarterly earnings has moved up by 1 cent to 20 cents per share in the past seven days.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Gap’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.21 billion, which suggests a fall of 0.7% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
American Eagle (AEO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.13% and currently sports a Zacks Rank #1. The company is likely to register growth in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers. The consensus mark for AEO’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at 50 cents per share in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate suggests 35.1% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for American Eagle’s quarterly revenues stands at $1.66 billion, suggesting growth of 11.2% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
Guess (GES - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.25% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is likely to register top-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $855.5 million, which indicates a decline of 4.6% from the year-ago quarter.
The consensus mark for GES’ fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 earnings per share is pegged at $1.55, suggesting a 10.9% year-over-year decline. The consensus estimate for earnings has been unchanged in the past 30 days. GES has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 43.1%, on average.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.