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Costco (COST) Set to Report Q2 Earnings: A Peek Into Comps

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Market watchers are eagerly awaiting Costco Wholesale Corporation’s (COST - Free Report) second-quarter fiscal 2024 results, scheduled to be reported on Mar 7 after the closing bell. This time, too, investors’ focus will be on comparable store sales, the key metric to gauge the company’s performance.

Insights Into Comparable Sales

Before delving into the second quarter of fiscal 2024, let's revisit the first quarter.

In the last reported quarter, Costco's comparable sales performance displayed a diverse picture across regions. The United States witnessed an increase of 2% in comparable sales, while Canada experienced a rise of 6.4%. Costco's performance in Other International locations was robust, with a significant increase of 11.2%. Overall, the company managed to achieve decent growth of 3.8% in comparable sales.

Meanwhile, traffic or shopping frequency rose 4.7% worldwide and 3.6% in the United States, indicating sustained footfall in Costco's warehouses. However, the average transaction size experienced a slight decline, down 0.9% worldwide and 1.6% in the United States. Despite this decrease, Costco's ability to drive higher traffic numbers highlights its strong value proposition and customer appeal.

As we turn our attention to the second quarter, it's important to consider the various factors influencing Costco's performance, such as consumer spending patterns, inflation trends and ongoing strategic initiatives. Additionally, strong renewal rates and membership growth are likely to have contributed to sales.

For the quarter in focus, we anticipate an impressive 5.6% jump in net sales and a 4.4% increase in total membership fees. Costco's paid membership base has been witnessing a steady rise, driven by a growing customer base and remarkable renewal rates. We also project 4.2% growth in comparable sales for the second quarter.

A customer-centric approach, strategic pricing, merchandise initiatives and an emphasis on memberships are likely to have contributed to Costco’s overall performance. We expect total paid members to increase 5.6% in the second quarter.

How Are Estimates Shaping Up?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $59.2 billion, indicating growth of 7.1% from the prior-year reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings per share has risen 1.1% to $3.60 over the past 30 days. The figure suggests an increase of 9.1% from the year-ago period.

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Costco this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is the case here.

Costco has an Earnings ESP of +1.58% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

3 Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three other companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.13% and a Zacks Rank #1. The company is likely to register a bottom-line increase when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly earnings per share of 50 cents suggests a rise of 35.1% from the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

American Eagle Outfitters’ top line is expected to advance year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.66 billion, which indicates an increase of 11.2% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. AEO has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 23%, on average.

Sprouts Farmers (SFM - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.56% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is likely to register a bottom-line increase when it reports first-quarter 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly earnings per share of 99 cents suggests a rise of 1% from the year-ago quarter.

Sprouts Farmers’ top line is expected to increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.84 billion, which indicates a jump of 5.9% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. Sprouts Farmers has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 10%, on average.

Burlington Stores (BURL - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.32% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to register a bottom-line increase when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $3.27 suggests a rise of 10.5% from the year-ago quarter.

Burlington Stores’ top line is anticipated to advance year over year. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $3.03 billion, indicating an increase of 10.3% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. BURL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.4%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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