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Potbelly (PBPB) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Potbelly Corporation (PBPB - Free Report) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Mar 7. In the last reported quarter, the company posted an earnings surprise of 100%.

How Are Estimates Placed?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 2 cents, indicating a decline of 77.8% from 9 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $125.8 million. The metric suggests growth of 4.7% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

Potbelly Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

 

Potbelly Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Potbelly Corporation price-eps-surprise | Potbelly Corporation Quote

 

Let’s analyze the factors likely to impact the company’s performance in the quarter to be reported.

Factors at Play

PBPB’s fiscal fourth-quarter top line is expected to increase from the year-ago levels, courtesy of continued strength in digital engagement, strong traffic and unit expansion efforts. Also, the focus on marketing initiatives and the rollout of Potbelly Digital Kitchen are likely to have aided the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

Recently, the company provided a business update revealing same-store sales growth ranging from 5.9% to 6.4%, surpassing the previously projected 4-6% range. The increase was primarily driven by a surge in customer traffic, supported by stronger-than-expected Average Weekly Sales (AWS). Potbelly's adherence to its Five-Pillar Strategy contributed to the positive outcome. During the quarter, the company reported AWS ranging from $24,870 to $24,970, exceeding their initial estimates of $24,250-$24,750. The company stated that the results are preliminary and subject to the completion of normal year-end accounting procedures.

Prudent cost control is likely to have aided the company’s performance in the fiscal fourth quarter. The company anticipates fiscal fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA to be between $5 million and $7 million.

However, high labor costs and increased marketing and advertising expenses are likely to have dented the bottom line in the fiscal fourth quarter.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Potbelly this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that's not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Potbelly has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Recent Retail-Wholesale Releases

McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) reported mixed fourth-quarter 2023 results, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues missing the same. Both the top and the bottom line increased on a year-over-year basis.

During the quarter, MCD reported adjusted EPS of $2.95, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.81. Adjusted earnings increased 11% year over year.

Quarterly net revenues of $6.4 billion missed the consensus mark of $6.5 billion. The top line rose 8% year over year. The upside was backed by menu price increases, effective marketing campaigns and continued digital and delivery growth.

Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC - Free Report) reported impressive fourth-quarter 2023 results, with earnings and revenues beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Both the top and the bottom line increased on a year-over-year basis.

During the quarter, YUMC reported adjusted EPS of 25 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 13 cents. The bottom line surged 92.3% from 13 cents reported a year ago.

Quarterly revenues of $2.5 billion outpaced the consensus mark of $2.4 billion. The top line rose 19.4% on a year-over-year basis. Excluding foreign currency translation, revenues increased 21% year over year. The upside can be attributed to net new unit contribution (12%) and same-store sales growth (4%).

Brinker International, Inc. (EAT - Free Report) reported mixed second-quarter fiscal 2024 results, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues missing the same. Both the top and the bottom line increased on a year-over-year basis. Effective marketing and pricing strategies backed the upside. Sequential improvements in guest traffic bode well.

During the quarter, EAT reported adjusted EPS of 99 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.47. The company reported adjusted EPS of 76 cents in the prior-year quarter.

Quarterly revenues of $1.07 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.08 billion. However, the top line increased 5.4% on a year-over-year basis. EAT gained from Chili's solid performance.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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