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Vertex (VRTX) Down 0.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 0.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Vertex due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Q4 Earnings & Sales Beat

Vertex reported fourth-quarter 2023 adjusted earnings per share of $4.20, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.10. Earnings increased 12% year over year, driven by strong growth in product revenues.

The company reported total revenues of $2.52 billion, comprising cystic fibrosis (CF) product revenues. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.49 billion. However, total revenues rose 9.3% year over year, primarily driven by higher sales of Trikafta/Kaftrio (marketed as Kaftrio in Europe) in U.S. and ex-U.S. markets.

CF product sales rose 8% year over year in the United States to $1.57 billion, while sales outside the United States increased 12% to $943 million.

Trikafta generated sales worth $2.33 billion, up 15.4% year over year. Trikafta sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate of $2.29 billion and $2.28 billion, respectively.

The upside was driven by the continued robust performance of Trikafta in the United States, fueled by label expansions to younger age groups (two to five years old). In the ex-U.S. markets, the drug continues to witness strong uptake with recently achieved reimbursements and expanded use in young age groups.

Sales from other CF products, namely Symdeko/Symkevi, Kalydeco and Orkambi, were down 34.4% year over year to $184.4 million. Sales of these drugs were hurt by patients switching to Trikafta.

On the conference call, Vertex said that the commercial launch of Casgevy is currently underway in the United States, United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. The company expects the first commercial patients to start treatment with Casgevy in the upcoming weeks.

Costs Rise

Adjusted operating expense was $1.0 billion in the quarter, up 15% year over year.

Adjusted R&D expenses rose 12.1% year over year to $698.8 million due to the expansion of the company’s mid- and late-stage pipeline, especially the pivotal studies for VX-548 in acute pain.

Adjusted selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses increased 26.6% to $285.6 million in the reported quarter due to expenses for CF launches and commercial launch activities for Casgevy

During the reported quarter, Vertex recorded acquired in-process research and development (IPR&D) costs of $17.8 million compared with $22.6 million in the year-ago quarter.

Adjusted operating income was $1.15 billion in the quarter, almost flat from the prior-year period.

Full-Year Results

For 2023, Vertex generated revenues of $9.87 billion, reflecting 11% growth year over year.

For the same period, the company reported adjusted earnings of $15.23 per share, up 2.4% year over year.

2024 Guidance

The company expects total product sales in the range of $10.55-$10.75 billion for 2024, including sales from Casgevy. The revenue range represents revenue growth of 8% at the midpoint.

Combined adjusted R&D, acquired IPR&D and SG&A expense for 2024 is expected in the band of $4.3-$4.4 billion, which includes $125 million in upfront and milestone payments.

The adjusted tax rate is expected in the range of 20-21%.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -5.89% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Vertex has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Vertex has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Vertex is part of the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry. Over the past month, GSK (GSK - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 2%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended December 2023 more than a month ago.

Glaxo reported revenues of $10 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +15.5%. EPS of $0.72 for the same period compares with $0.64 a year ago.

Glaxo is expected to post earnings of $0.91 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +1.1%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +7.7%.

Glaxo has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of F.


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