A month has gone by since the last earnings report for FMC (FMC Quick QuoteFMC - Free Report) . Shares have added about 11.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is FMC due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

FMC Corp Misses Q4 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

FMC Corp reported earnings of $8.77 per share in fourth-quarter 2023 compared with $2.17 reported in the year-ago quarter.

Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were $1.07, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.09.

Revenues were $1.15 billion in the quarter, down around 29% from the year-ago quarter’s levels. The top line fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.25 billion.

A 25% decline in volumes impacted FMC’s revenues in the fourth quarter.  A 5% decline in pricing was partly offset by a 1% currency tailwind.  Sales of products launched in the last five years accounted for 14% of total revenues in the quarter.

Regional Sales Performance

In North America, sales plummeted 37% year over year to $275 million in the quarter on reduced volumes, impacted by inventory de-stocking.

Latin American sales saw a 38% year-over-year decline to $433 million in the reported quarter, primarily due to reduced volume stemming from weaker demand and adverse weather conditions in Brazil.

In Asia, revenues remained unchanged compared to the previous year, totaling $278 million, with growth in fungicides offsetting flat sales in branded diamides.

EMEA experienced a 24% year-over-year sales drop to $160 million in the reported quarter, driven by volume declines resulting from channel destocking, particularly in herbicides. However, this was partly mitigated by a low-to-mid single-digit price increase and robust growth in branded diamides.

FY23 Results

In the full year, FMC reported revenue amounting to $4.49 billion, marking a 23% decrease compared to 2022. Excluding the FX impact, organic year-over-year sales declined by 22%. On a reported basis, the company posted full-year net income of $1.32 billion, showing a remarkable 78% increase over the previous year, primarily driven by one-time tax benefits reported in the fourth quarter. Consolidated earnings per share stood at $10.53, up 81% year over year. However, full-year adjusted earnings reached $3.78 per share, down 49% from 2022 levels.

Financials

The company had cash and cash equivalents of $302.4 million at the end of the quarter, down roughly 47% year over year. Long-term debt was $3.02 billion, up around 10.6% year over year.

Guidance

FMC forecasts full-year 2024 revenues between $4.50 billion and $4.70 billion, indicating a 2.5% increase at the midpoint compared to 2023, mainly fueled by new product growth in the second half. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $900 million and $1.05 billion, flat at the midpoint compared to the prior year, with headwinds in the first half offset by second-half tailwinds. Adjusted EPS is forecast between $3.23 to $4.41 per share, up 1% year-over-year at the midpoint due to lower interest expense and D&A. Full-year free cash flow is anticipated to be $400 million to $600 million, driven by the rebuilding of payables and lower inventory.

FMC also forecasts first-quarter revenues to be between $925 million and $1.075 billion, reflecting a 26% decrease at the midpoint compared to the first quarter of 2023, driven by lower volume due to destocking across all regions. Price is expected to present a low-to-mid single-digit headwind, primarily in Latin America and Asia. Adjusted EBITDA is forecast to range from $135-$165 million, suggesting a 59% decline at the midpoint versus the prior-year period’s levels. The downtick is likely to be caused by lower sales and gross margin impacts from high-cost inventory carried over from the previous year. Adjusted EPS are expected in the range of 21-43 cents in the first quarter, calling for an 82% plunge at the midpoint compared with first-quarter 2023 levels, mainly due to lower adjusted EBITDA.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -65.54% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, FMC has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, FMC has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

FMC belongs to the Zacks Chemical - Diversified industry. Another stock from the same industry, Olin (OLN Quick QuoteOLN - Free Report) , has gained 9.5% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended December 2023.

Olin reported revenues of $1.61 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -18.3%. EPS of $0.30 for the same period compares with $1.43 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Olin is expected to post earnings of $0.39 per share, indicating a change of -66.4% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

Olin has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.