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Archer Daniels (ADM) to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in The Cards?

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Archer Daniels Midland Company ADM is slated to report  fourth-quarter 2023 results on Mar 12, before market open. The company is likely to report top and bottom-line declines when it posts the fourth-quarter 2023 results.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s quarterly earnings is pegged at $1.42 per share, which suggests a decline of 26.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark has been stable in the past 30 days. For fourth-quarter 2023 revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $23.7 billion, suggesting a 9.8% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 8.7%. Its earnings outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 16.9%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Key Factors to Note

Archer Daniels is exposed to headwinds, including higher performance-related compensation, project-related costs and shifting costs from business segments into the centralized centers of excellence in the supply chain and operations. These are likely to have led to a continued rise in SG&A expenses in the to-be-reported quarter. As a percentage of sales, we expect SG&A expenses to increase 20 basis points to 3.6% in the fourth quarter.

Archer Daniels Midland Company Price and EPS Surprise

 

Archer Daniels Midland Company Price and EPS Surprise

Archer Daniels Midland Company price-eps-surprise | Archer Daniels Midland Company Quote

 

The company is also not immune to the global impacts of inflation. It expects corporate costs for 2023 to be $1.5 billion, driven primarily by inflation and higher interest expenses. This is likely to have impacted the company’s fourth-quarter performance, affecting margins. We note that the company has been witnessing a downside driven by an ongoing investigation of its accounting practices, particularly in the Nutrition segment. It has been grappling with sluggish performance in its Nutrition segment. We anticipate the segment’s sales to drop 4.5% year over year.

Nonetheless, Archer Daniels has been gaining from solid demand, improved productivity and product innovations. Also, the company has been witnessing improved crush margins. Robust demand for ethanol and biofuels raises optimism about ethanol and biofuel margins. Gains from these efforts are likely to have provided some cushion to the company’s quarterly performance.

On its last earnings call, management had anticipated the Ag Services and Oilseeds unit to deliver solid results, that are slightly lower than the prior year, in fourth-quarter 2023. It projected Ag Services’ results to be in line with the prior year. It had predicted similar year-over-year North American export volumes, a competitive South American export program and solid performance from the global trade. Management expected the crushing subsegment to generate strong results similar to the year-ago period. For the fourth quarter, it had predicted steady demand and margins for starches, sweeteners and wheat flower products.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Archer Daniels this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Archer Daniels currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are some companies, which according to our model,  have the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.12% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is anticipated to register top and bottom-line growth in fourth-quarter fiscal 2023. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OLLI’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $649.1 million, suggesting growth of 18.1% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for Ollie's quarterly earnings has been unchanged in the past 30 days at $1.16 per share, suggesting 38.1% growth from the year-ago quarter's reported number. OLLI delivered an earnings surprise of 7%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Simply Good Foods (SMPL - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.06% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is expected to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SMPL’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged in the past 30 days at 56 cents per share, suggesting growth of 19.2% from the year-ago quarter's reported number.

The consensus estimate for Simply Good’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.13 billion, which suggests growth of 4.3% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. SMPL delivered an earnings surprise of 4.7%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Philip Morris International (PM - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.11% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is expected to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports first-quarter 2024 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PM’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $8.4 billion, which suggests growth of 3.5% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The consensus estimate for Philip Morris’ bottom line has moved down 2.8% in the past 30 days to $1.40 per share, which suggests growth of 1.5% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. PM has delivered an earnings surprise of 2.5%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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