Tuesday, March 12th, 2024

The S&P 500 index closed at a new record high this afternoon, knocking out the previous highs set back in January and coming in at 5175. Percentage-wise, the S&P gained +1.12% today, or +57 points. Before January, the last time the S&P index was this high was back in the very earliest trading sessions of 2022. Elsewhere, the Dow gained +235 points, +0.61%, despite a -4% hit for Boeing (BA Quick QuoteBA - Free Report) that was offset by a CEO change at 3M (MMM Quick QuoteMMM - Free Report) . The Nasdaq beat the field, +246 points or +1.54%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 was flat.

We saw firming consumer prices from this morning’s CPI report, with core month over month actually notching 10 basis points (bps) higher than anticipated, while core year over year at +3.8% was 10 bps lower that the previous two months’ prints. We’re heading toward near three-year lows on this metric, which shows the Fed’s method of keeping interest rates higher for longer continues to have an incremental effect, without tumbling into recession (to this point, at least).

Now that CPI data (as well as Jobs data from last week) are behind us, market participants are looking toward the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting a week from tomorrow. Gone are any realistic expectations of a rate cut from the 5.25-5.50% range we’ve had for eight months now, and yet the market is clearly OK with this. Overall economic data, while not without its caveats, is bringing what market investors are treating as fairly Goldilocks. This now goes beyond A.I. plays and even the Tech sector as a whole; we now see a wide distribution of healthy segments of the market.

Wednesday brings us no new economic data at all, save earnings reports in this off-week between Q4 and Q1 earnings seasons: Dollar Tree (DLTR Quick QuoteDLTR - Free Report) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM Quick QuoteWSM - Free Report) — two sides of the Retail coin: discount and high-end — are expected to move in different directions, with the former expecting +30% earnings growth year over year and and the latter forecast -8%. After tomorrow’s close, Lennar Home (LEN Quick QuoteLEN - Free Report) takes the temperature of the Homebuilder space; the Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)-rated firm expects +4% earnings growth, and has not missed on its bottom line in nearly five years.

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