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Why Is Teradata (TDC) Down 0.3% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Teradata (TDC - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 0.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Teradata due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Teradata Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y

Teradata reported fourth-quarter 2023 non-GAAP earnings of 56 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.8%. The bottom line jumped 60% year over year.

Revenues of $457 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.01%. The figure increased 1.1% year over year on a reported basis and 1% on a constant-currency (cc) basis.

Total annual recurring revenues (“ARR”) at the fourth-quarter end increased 6% year over year to $1.57 billion. The figure increased 5% at cc.

Public cloud ARR surged 48% on a reported basis and 46% at cc year over year to $528 million.

Solid customer demand for Teradata Vantage Cloud was a positive. The cloud net expansion rate was 124%.

Top Line in Detail

Recurring revenues (contributing 81.4% to revenues) increased 4.2% year over year on a reported basis (increased 4% at cc) to $372 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.29%.

Perpetual software license and hardware revenues (2.6% of revenues) were down 29.4% year over year (down 34% at cc) to $12 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 21.75%.

Consulting services’ revenues (16% of revenues) dropped 6.4% year over year (down 4% at cc) to $73 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.13%.

Revenues from the Americas increased 3.1% year over year on a reported basis (increased 5% at cc) to $372 million. EMEA revenues fell 0.8% year over year (down 4% at cc) to $127 million.

Revenues from the APJ region were down 3% year over year (down 2% at cc) to $65 million.

Operating Details

The gross margin on a non-GAAP basis was 61.9%, expanding 240 basis points (bps) year over year.

Selling, general & administrative (SG&A) expenses decreased 9.1% year over year to $159 million. Research & development (R&D) expenses were $72 million, declining 6.5% year over year.

As a percentage of revenues, SG&A contracted 390 bps year over year to 34.8%, whereas R&D contracted 130 bps to 15.8%.

The non-GAAP operating margin was 19.5%, up 580 bps year over year.

Balance Sheet

As of Dec 31, 2023, Teradata had cash and cash equivalents of $486 million compared with $348 million as of Sep 30, 2023.

Long-term debt Dec 31, 2023, was $499 million compared with $486 million as of Sep 30, 2023.

In the fourth quarter, Teradata generated $176 million in cash from operating activities compared with the previous quarter’s $41 million.

The company generated a free cash flow of $168 million in the reported quarter.

Share repurchases in 2023 amounted to $308 million.

Guidance

For first-quarter 2024, non-GAAP earnings are expected to be between 53 and 57 cents per share.

For 2024, TDC expects non-GAAP earnings between $2.15 and $2.31 per share.

Public cloud ARR growth is projected between 35% and 41% on a year-over-year basis.

Total ARR is expected to exhibit growth of 4-8% from the 2023 level.

Teradata expects recurring revenues to increase 1-3% year over year.

Teradata expects total revenues to be up 0-2% from the year-ago reported figure. The consensus mark for 2023 revenues is pegged at $1.83 billion.

Moreover, cash flow from operations is expected to be between $360 million and $400 million. Free cash flow is anticipated to be in the $340-$380 million range.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -25.19% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Teradata has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Teradata has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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