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Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) Up 9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Louisiana-Pacific (LPX - Free Report) . Shares have added about 9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Louisiana-Pacific due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Louisiana-Pacific Q4 Earnings Beat, Adjusted EBITDA Up

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation or LP, reported impressive fourth-quarter 2023 results. Earnings and net sales beat their respective Zacks Consensus Estimate.

On a year-over-year basis, earnings increased despite net sales decline on lower costs and reduced inflationary pressure.

Detailed Discussion

Louisiana-Pacific reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 71 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 52 cents by 36.5%. The bottom line increased 16.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure of 61 cents per share on the back of strong adjusted EBITDA.

Net sales of $658 beat the consensus estimate of $624 million by 5.5% but declined 7% from the prior year’s figure of $705 million, owing to lower Siding sales.

Single-family housing starts rose to 236 from the 193 units reported in the year-ago period. Multi-family starts were down to 98 units from 134 units reported a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA of $129 million was up 29% from the prior-year quarter’s level, backed by higher OSB selling prices and a decrease in inflationary costs (including freight, raw materials, and labor).

Segmental Analysis

Siding: The segment’s sales of $332 million were down 14% from the prior-year period. A 1% rise in the average net selling price (ASP) was offset by a 15% decrease in volume from prior-year levels. The ASP benefited from list price increases, but volume reduced on challenging new and existing home selling markets as well as record results in the comparable year-ago period.

Adjusted EBITDA came in at $72 million, a 19% decline from $88 million reported a year ago.

OSB: Sales in the segment increased 6% year over year to $272 million, owing to an increase of 9% in OSB prices. This was partially offset by a 3% decrease in sales volume.

The company’s adjusted EBITDA grew a whopping 362% year over year to $59 million due to higher commodity selling prices, decrease in inflationary costs, and reduced mill-related costs.

LP South America: Sales of $52 million increased 3% on higher volumes offset by lower ASP. Adjusted EBITDA plunged 10% from the year-ago quarter to $11 million.

2023 Highlights

For the year, net sales amounted to $2.6 billion, down 33% from 2022. Siding Solutions’ net sales growth of 26% was offset by a 14% decline in OSB.

Adjusted EPS came in at $3.22, down from $11.77 reported in 2022. Adjusted EBITDA for the year summed up to $478 million, down 34.4% from the 2022 number.

Financials

At 2023-end, LP had more than $770 million in liquidity. As of Dec 31, 2023, Louisiana-Pacific had cash and cash equivalents of $222 million compared with $369 million at 2022-end. Long-term debt was $347 million compared with the 2022-end level of $346 million.

For 2023, net cash provided by operations was $316 million, down from $1.14 billion reported at the end of 2022. At 2023-end, $200 million shares remained under the share repurchase program authorized in May 2022.

Guidance

For the first quarter of 2024, the company expects Siding Solutions’ revenues to grow 3-5% from the year-ago period. It anticipates a consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $130-$145 million, of this $65-$70 million is likely to be contributed by Siding, and $65-$75 million is likely to be added by OSB.

For 2024, the company expects Siding Solutions’ revenues to rise 8-10% from 2023. LP projects a consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $495-$525 million, of this $280-$300 million is likely to be contributed by Siding, and $215-$225 million is likely to be added by OSB.

LP anticipates capital expenditures between $200 million and $220 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted 14.79% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Louisiana-Pacific has a nice Growth Score of B, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Louisiana-Pacific has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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